Handing it over

648-621-26 OVERALL
80-76-5--- NFL
279-253-13 NBA
123-116-4 NCAA (bb)
65-77-3 NCAA FOOTBALL
101-102-1 MLB (down 3.47 UNITS)
2-2 Misc (Up 1.2 units)


After that ninth inning loss im handing it over to another capper for a couple days


here are his picks

1: Boston Red Sox -175 (Game 2)

Jeff Niemann might be the best pitcher in MLB since July, but there are signs that he might be wearing out a bit. On July 29th against Seattle, he gave up 3 hits and struck-out 11 in 6.2 innings of work. His next start, against Oakland, his hits-allowed rose to 7 and he struck out 8 in 8.2 innings of work. Then finally, in his last start, against KC, Niemann allowed 9 hits in 6.1 innings, and only struck-out 2. "Things weren't coming as easily as they have been the past few games," Niemann said. "You're going to have starts when you're not as sharp." So in his last 3 starts his hits increased in each: 3, 7, 9 hits (in that order) and his strike-outs declined in each: 11, 8, 2. Seattle and Oakland are 2 of the worst offenses in the league, while KC is middle-of-the-road. Now, Niemann will get to face one of the 'premier' offensive squads in Boston. If Niemann felt that things weren't coming as easily to him in his last start, things are about to get much more difficult today.

Bedard, on the other hand, went from allowing 7 hits in 5 innings in his 1st start with Boston (5 K's) to allowing only 3 hits in 5 innings (6 K's) in his 2nd start with them. He did issue 4 BB's in that last start, which is a concern, but I expect him to clean those up today. Bedard is a lefty, and Rays actually hit lefties pretty well. What is interesting though is that Bedard has a career xFIP of 3.71 against right-handed batters and 4.19 against lefties. Hmm.. He is one of those rare-breeds that has a 'reverse platoon affect'. I expect him to pitch well tonight.

I know that Tampa Bay is a very good road-team, with a 33-27 (55%) record, but the interesting thing is that as road 'dogs' in the +125 to +150 range, they're 3-9 (25%) this year. Boston has a huge advantage in the bullpen and on offense here. They'll be facing a 'fatigued' pitcher in Niemann, and I expect a very comfortable Red Sox win in the 2nd game of the double-header.

#2: OVER 8.5 BAL/OAK +100

We have two of the worst starting pitchers in the league facing off in this one. Baltimore already seen Moscoso twice this year so the 'unfamiliarity' angle is gone, and Matusz has an ERA of over 5.4 and WHIP of over 1.5 against Oakland in his short career. Both squads are in the bottom 6 in fielding, and I'll take a couple of 'cheap' runs tonight if I have to. The O/U is 32-22 in Baltimore's road games, 45-36 when they face a righty pitcher, and 26-20 when the total is in the 8-8.5 range. The O/U is 33-20 in Oakland's home games, 5-2 when the home total is in the 8-8.5 range, and 20-15 against lefty starters. The O/U is 5-1 in Baltimore's last 6 games, while it's 6-0 in A's games in the same time-span. My model has this one at 10.5 total runs, and with wind blowing slightly out tonight, I really like this OVER to hit.

#3: Toronto Blue Jays -117

This one is fairly simple, we have 2 lefty starters on the mound, and one team that absolutely crushes them and the other that does not. One team averages 5.3 rpg and is the 4th best hitting team in the majors against left-handers, while the other one is dead last in that category, averaging 2.8 rpg against them. This team is 8-21 (28%) against left-handed starters this year and 50-87 (36%) over the last couple of years. I think you can guess which team is who.