MNF Breakdown

Final assessment:
This game scares me because the read I am getting is screaming Kansas City as the sharp home dog, but a few things are not right about this game. Firstly it seems as if we will have a high scoring game on our hands because this 44.5 is right around the highest total we have seen from these two teams this season. But, oddly enough their last game only included 37 points. Kansas City should be able to pass all over SD especially in the RZ where Cassell is excellent and the Bowe Breaston combination is really tough to stop. Yet by the same token I also think that SD should be able to run in the RZ against KC, who seems to have some trouble in their interior. Also the game scares me because KC has been like a free handout all year for bettors, they have won 4 straight ATS and that trend began with an easy cover against the chargers in San Diego. To me, the cheifs catching 3 is not an issue at all, its just that they are home and the public is all over SD, which perplexes me, because as we have said many times, San Diego is having a mediocre year, against mediocre competition and have been pretty disappointing ATS.
I guess this is how I see it.
20% of the public is on KC +3 with a sinking line, with the other 80% obviously on SD.
here's where it gets interesting...
78% of the public is on the over 44.5 according to vegasinsider, but if you look at the sportsbook chart where the actual money value is assessed, the 78% on the over is still less monetary value than the 20% thats on KC, so by definition it is LESS of a public play even though many people are on it. I like the over because the under hit with flying colors only 3 weeks ago with these same 2 teams, and the over under line only went down a half point.

plays: Kansas city +3 and OVER 44.5

2011-2012
-----
93-74-6 OVERALL
41-25-3 NFL
52-49-3 NCAA FOOTBALL

2010-2011
----------
727-679-31 OVERALL
183-157-6 MLB (Up 15.23 Units)
80-76-5--- NFL
279-253-13 NBA
123-116-4 NCAA (bb)
65-77-3 NCAA FOOTBALL
3-4 Misc (down .2 units)

Sunday night play

Philly -3 v Dallas
----
Eagles need this win bad. Just about as bad as any underachieving highly paid team ever has in the mid season. This is a huge game for the EAGLES, for their DIVISION RECORD and for ANDY REID. also the eagles have not covered a lot of spreads 2-4 this season, and for all intents and purposes should not be favored according to the stats. But reputations and rivalries be as they may, We think this is certainly the right play for the Sunday night matchup. Expect a good, high scoring game.

Washington +4
-----
Too many things about this game that make me think... hey washington's d is really solid and that line is wicked suspicious for a team playing a "home" game against a crippled team. I have to say I have my doubts, but this is a good play in my eyes.

7-2 yesterday

Minnesota +3
-------
Minnesota is excellent at stopping the run despite their lack of success in wins and losses this year. I think the Panthers offense although pass heavy is predicated on their run game with newton and williams. Carolina is terrible at stopping the run and will have a very hard time with AP today. Plus you have ponder playing his ass off against a much better team last week. Not to mention Carolina has covered a ton of spreads this season and I think they have worn out their welcome.

Miami V Giants Under 42.5
------
There is no way any model or system would break down this game at below 45. I dont care what your system is, it would make no sense to have it below 45 I had it at 49 and my over unders are very accurate. This tells me that vegas knows something about the match up. I think Miami's pass D and Giants Run D will really slow this game down. Not to mention the slippery field from all the snow.

Pitt+3 V New England
--
I think the Patriots will have to run today and although they have had incredible success in their passing game against pitt in the past, I think that Pitt, similar to Buffalo, will be able to keep the ball away from the patriots. This is my least sure play, but the pats only laying three.. to me is a set up.

2011-2012

-----

89-73-6 OVERALL
37-24-3 NFL
52-49-3 NCAA FOOTBALL

2010-2011
----------
727-679-31 OVERALL
183-157-6 MLB (Up 15.23 Units)
80-76-5--- NFL
279-253-13 NBA
123-116-4 NCAA (bb)
65-77-3 NCAA FOOTBALL
3-4 Misc (down .2 units)

SATURDAY MADNESS!!!!

Indiana +9
------
Indiana is a respectable program and will attempt to cover by the back door.

Nebraska -4
------
Nebraska has to be the play here.


Louisville -3
-----
big big game for louisville, check cappazoid.blogspot.com for further explanation.


Penn St Under 38.5
-------
This is going to be slow and methodical, may get to 40 points but I doubt it.

G Tech +3
------
They can score with clemson and if they establish their running game properly they will hold the ball.

Vandy +9
------
very suspicious line movement here....expect vandy to keep this close

Florida +3
-----
Qb coming back... cappazoid.blogspot.com


USC +8.5
-----
I swear they lose by 8.

Notre Dame - 23
-----
Navy has let me down 2 times this year, im rolling with ND on the bounceback game. They need a good performance to see a decent bowl.

End of a long season

So yesterday I went with my childhood team instead of my gambling angles... teaches us not to be fans. Either way I would like to thank everyone for participating in a very LONG baseball season in which we saw 15.23 UNITS of profit in our first year handicapping the sport.

I am very pleased with the knowledge and progress and I am excited for next baseball season.

Also went 1-1 last night in College football as I hedged out in the second half. The under really was the sharp play there and Im disappointed that BYU laid an egg in the first half because they should have been able to hold TCU that last drive of the first half (which put us over by the way.)

on to a big day in college football

2011-2012
-----
82-71-6 OVERALL
37-24-3 NFL
45-47-3 NCAA FOOTBALL

2010-2011
----------
727-679-31 OVERALL
183-157-6 MLB (Up 15.23 Units)
(Records Below are closed out)
80-76-5--- NFL
279-253-13 NBA
123-116-4 NCAA (bb)
65-77-3 NCAA FOOTBALL
3-4 Misc (down .2 units)

byu +4 2nd Half
---
i think byu was off to a rough start and this half will come out more relaxed as they have little to lose.

World Series

Final Game

Texas +123

They did not come this far to lose again...2 years, 2 world series, down to one pitch 2 times last night... this is where Texas ends this.

BYU @ TCU
---------
TCU has not played the stiffest of competition, but they play a decent schedule, which has included tough, hard fought close losses to SMU and Baylor. Not so bad.
But on the flip side of things BYU has had equal success against a slightly tougher schedule.
they have not played a top tier team like baylor or SMU, but the Mormons have played good competition from week to week. Teams like Texas and OLE MISS first two weeks of the season is good competition.. plus they have had good games against UCF (c+) UTAH State (B) UTAH (B-) and Oregon St (B-). So i think this one comes down to gambling angles.

Gambling Trends:
-----------------
BYU is 4-4 ATS
Under is 5-3 In BYU games
BYU has won last 5 games SU and last 2 ATS
BYU last 2 games went OVER

TCU is 3-3-1 ATS this year
TCU has covered 2 in a row ATS
TCU has been a favorite in every game
last time TCU failed to cover ATS was vs SMU and the line was TCU -13
OVer is 6-1 in TCU contests

Conclusion:
For now I like the UNDER, both teams had a joke game last week and scored a plethora of points against should be D2 squads NEW MEXICO and IDAHO ST. I think they will be slowed a bit by the difference in defensive competition on Both sidelines...

UNDER 57

2011-2012
-----
81-70-6 OVERALL
37-24-3 NFL
44-46-3 NCAA FOOTBALL

2010-2011
----------
727-678-31 OVERALL
183-156-6 MLB (Up 16.23 Units)
(Records Below are closed out)
80-76-5--- NFL
279-253-13 NBA
123-116-4 NCAA (bb)
65-77-3 NCAA FOOTBALL
3-4 Misc (down .2 units)

Rice plus 27.5

Tonight tonight...

I like:

Virginia +14
--
Miami is rolling and playing very well as of late, but so is virginia. And w/ 2 teams that have this similar of schedule I think 14 is a lot of chalk. I like the fact that virginia is not receiving a lot of public love, and I also like the fact that they have not covered many spreads
(only 2-5 ATS) this season, while miami is 4-3ATS with 3 big covers in a ROW!!
Smells like upset soup.

BASEBALL:
Some think this will be the last night of the baseball season, but I feel like mr. commissioner is going to squeeze a bit more TV time and bring this series to GAME 7
Garcia -116

But I also think that this game is a cold rainy night, so we will also be going with

UNDER 7.5

CFB WEDNESDAY

First and foremost, I also lean toward the under, but the play here for me has to be Pitt -10.

What is Las Vegas saying?

1) An interconference game, National TV, one of Last games these two are in the big east together, and the line is PITT -10?
2) Pitt has lost 4/5 SU in its last 5 games and was 2-3 ATS in its last 5 games vs such OUT OF CONFERENCE competition as IOWA, NOTRE DAME, and UTAH, who are all solid this year.
3) UCONN's last 2 covers ATS were against completely mediocre teams in games where there were 30 or less total points scored in the game.
Whereas PITT's last 3 covers ATS were in games where they scored 35 or more THEMSELVES.

4) Uconn is 2-2 in their last 4 ATS and was an easy cover against Buffalo (UCONN-8.5) and against USF (UCONN+7.5) who they beat handily on the field .

5)Speaking of USF, Their only common Victory, UCONN's score was 16-10 while PITT's was 44-17 and they both were underdogs against this common opponent.

6) PITT failed to cover as -6 and -6.5 FAVORITES agains RUTGERS and UTAH the last two weeks respectively, and now they are -10?

Vegas knows, and

PITT -10 is what I chose.



I also rolled with

UNDER 42.5
and that write up can be found @ Cappazoid.blogspot.com

update

2011-2012
-----
79-68-6 OVERALL
37-24-3 NFL
42-44-3 NCAA FOOTBALL

2010-2011
----------
726-677-31 OVERALL
182-155-6 MLB (Up 16.33 Units)
(Records Below are closed out)
80-76-5--- NFL
279-253-13 NBA
123-116-4 NCAA (bb)
65-77-3 NCAA FOOTBALL
3-4 Misc (down .2 units)

Troy +6.5 V FIU
-----
FIU didnt cover last week against ark state and now everyone and their mother is backing them. FIU is not incredible in the RED ZONE and their field goal kicker is a joke.

Troy has a solid running back, a decent QB and an all around athletic D.

Watch Troy win this game on the field .


2011-2012
-----
78-68-6 OVERALL
37-24-3 NFL
41-44-3 NCAA FOOTBALL

2010-2011
----------
726-677-31 OVERALL
182-155-6 MLB (Up 16.33 Units)
(Records Below are closed out)
80-76-5--- NFL
279-253-13 NBA
123-116-4 NCAA (bb)
65-77-3 NCAA FOOTBALL
3-4 Misc (down .2 units)

World Series

So good start to the World Series, here is my pick for tonight's game.

Despite my instincts, which make me want to take Texas, with their ace, at home, last home game of the world series...etc
I sincerely feel that St. Louis is a better team with a DH. I also feel that after a game like last night, the line should be higher for texas in their final home game of the year.

With that said I am taking the Cardinals, There is no way they get beat by a lefty again, I predict a very close game but a 5-3 victory for the cardinals.

STL +107 Carpenter.

JAGS V RAVENS

Well, on paper this is an ass kickin. On paper, this game is also a definite under, but the problem becomes if you think this will be an ass whippin by the Ravens, then the over under is never a safe bet, cuz it could be the type where its 38-0 or it could be the type where its 49-7 and now the backups are in vs the other teams starters. Jags cannot score with the Ravens, so they will look to run the ball with Jones Drew and Use playaction and tight interior passes to keep the ball moving. Consequently, the Jags secondary is the strength of their entire team, and I think the ravens will look to get ray rice the ball both in the running game and in the short passing and screen game, as well as use Ricky Williams to wear down a strong Jags defensive line. I honestly think this goes under simply because the o/u line is right where I thought it would be and most people look at the Ravens as a high scoring offense, so vegas and I are on the same page that balti will have to run the rock.

Leans: Jags +10 and Under 39.5
Plays : UNDER 39.5

Record update MNF ON THE WAY

2011-2012
-----
77-68-6 OVERALL
36-24-3 NFL
41-44-3 NCAA FOOTBALL

2010-2011
----------
726-676-31 OVERALL
182-154-6 MLB (Up 17.33 Units)
(Records Below are closed out)
80-76-5--- NFL
279-253-13 NBA
123-116-4 NCAA (bb)
65-77-3 NCAA FOOTBALL
3-4 Misc (down .2 units)

Holland -197 World Series Game 4.

Holland is an excellent pitcher and I think this will be a defining game for texas as they win this next one to even it up. Call me crazy

Dallas V St. Louis

Dallas -14

Dallas should win this game 31-10. Thats about all I can say, not much SHARP insight to give when you have a team this bad and they are half strength, this could be ugly. I dont know if you can even touch this game because dallas might just score 45 on the rams themselves. The rams only hope is if dallas is looking past them, but after 2 tough losses and no wins at home ATS i think you have to either lay off this game or bet dallas and hope for the best with a lot of chalk.

NFL SUNDAY BABY!!!!

Atlanta V Detroit
-------
I think that the oddsmakers got this one right on, this is going to be a closer game than most think. ATL is not so wonderful on paper, they do not pose a deep threat, their interior game has not rendered much to write home about and their pass Defense is not that great, that being said, they are an experienced team with a bit of momentum and something to prove. Detroit got exposed last week by a very good San Fran team and I think we will see closer and closer football games as the lions start to play stiffer competition.

Leans: ATL +3.5 and Under 48.5
Play: UNDER 48.5

Tenn V Houston
-------

What I see here is that vegas is setting a line where the home team is the favorite. I understand that, I dont see why, but I get where they are headed. To me this looks like a situation where defense beats offense and the mediocre Defense of houston will give way to an efficient Titans short attack perhaps. Titans are coming off a bye and I think they may have something to show us that no one is anticipating. This is a very important game for the titans.

Leans: Tennesee -3 and OVER

Plays: Tennesee -3 -105 Juice

Cleveland V Seattle
-------

Well, this is a shit game. No doubt about it. We have the best player on both offenses injured, we have two teams that dont score a whole lot, and two defenses that are good at one thing, and very bad at another.

I think that dependent on line movement you could see a good play on the under, this IS a low total. But please be weary because I think that Charlie WhiteHurst is a very good QB especially for a backup, and he will move the ball into at least field goal range. Also, Colt McCoy is going to torch this Seattle Secondary in the 2nd Half, so maybe there is a second half over play somewhere in the cards.

Bottom line, I like the browns b/c seattle will get stopped in RZ
Leans: Cleveland -3/ Under 41
Plays: Cleveland -3


Chargers V Jets
--------

I think this is an ass whippin waiting to happen for the Chargers. They have SOME talent, but I really dont see where the offense is going to come from against this Jets D. yes the Jets have gotten beaten up by the more talented teams, but I gotta be honest with you, who you have played in previous weeks not only shows your level of recent competition and gives a curve to your stats, but it also displays your team's mindstate and preparedness.

I would take the jets in this game if they were -7, perhaps im missing something huge.

Play: Jets Pick Em


Panthers V Redskins
---------

I think that people have caught wind of the panthers and their ability to stay in games with their athleticism, which consequently means they can cover spreads. Well those who found that out may have joined the party after the keg was already tapped, because the Panthers will not cover this week. Yes the Redskins are in a transition and very unhappy with their offense, and yes I agree that the panthers have played a tough schedule against the Saints Falcons, Packers and Bears, but the bottom line is this,

The Panthers have NO RUN DEFENSE.
and although the QB situation is changing, one thing that will not change is the Redskins and Mike Shanahan running the ball. they are going to pound it down their throat which may also spell under cuz the panthers wont be able to run the ball themselves without Newton putting himself at risk.

Leans: Redskins and under
plays: Redskins +2

OAK V KANSAS CITY
------

Final Assessment: KC is not a great team, OAK looks good this year but has a big ? mark at QB, which has been their biggest improvement in the last year and the biggest difference maker. I think this game is a slow paced running game, I know Cassell will look to throw but it seems like he hasnt had the passing time to do so this year with 10 sacks against in only 5 games. I think both teams will look to Run and KC with 2 weeks to prepare will have a solid game plan that doesnt involve getting into a shootout with a team that can score 3 to 4 rushing TDs alone.

Play: Under 41



2011
-----
73-66-5 OVERALL
32-22-2 NFL
41-44-3 NCAA FOOTBALL

2010-2011
----------
725-676-31 OVERALL
181-154-5 MLB (Up 16.33 Units)
(Records Below are closed out)
80-76-5--- NFL
279-253-13 NBA
123-116-4 NCAA (bb)
65-77-3 NCAA FOOTBALL
3-4 Misc (down .2 units)

Over 10 ---World Series
-----
The number is very high for the totals these two teams have been putting up, and with the real steep price on Texas one would assume they will hit better in the home Texas heat. Well so will the Cardinals, especially against a lefty.

Mich St +7.5
------
I think wisconsin is excellent but its about time they play a close game

Vanderbilt -11


So Miss -3

Two Mo'

Kansas +10.5 V K State
-----
First off this is one of the biggest rivalries in college football. It may not have the clout of an OK ST V OKLA or a LSU V AUBURN, but I expect a closer game than most anticipate. I also like Kansas because they have come off games against the best competition in college football. OKLA, OK ST, G tech and a decent Texas Tech squad are their last four games and they have not covered many spreads, so the fact that they are catching ten doesnt scare me at all.


UNC +10 V Clemson
----
Unc has had a couple poor showings but I think they have the defense and athletic capability to hang in there with Clemson. This is a Rivalry and inter conference game, I think UNC is prepared to play and they will not get intimidated by Clemson's home reputation, they have played there plenty of times these upper classmen and they are due for a bounce back. I do not like the Money line on this one, but I think the Public is hammering the Clemson Tigers and they got exposed last week by a week Maryland team.

Saturday CARD Early

Missouri +7 V Ok St
----
Ok state proved me wrong last week but Im going with the same theory here. Ok state has not played the highest level of competition in their wins and I think they get a very good game from Mizzo here. Lou Holtz has my back on this one, which at times can be a bad thing but old lispy might be right this time around fellas!!

Florida St -18.5
----
Florida State much too athletic for Maryland, this will be worse than game one this season for maryland.

Notre Dame -9.5 V USC
-----
Pete Carroll does not coach USC anymore. He coaches the Seahawks and we will bet on them on sunday. Watch this ass whippin by the Irish.

Navy -11.5
-----
ECU is just awful on defense and until they change coordinators they will be a failure program.
Cappazoid.blogspot.com

Miami -3
----
G tech a bit over hyped, had to roll with this one
Cappazoid.blogspot.com


2011
-----
68-61-5 OVERALL
32-22-2 NFL
36-39-3 NCAA FOOTBALL

2010-2011
----------
724-676-31 OVERALL
180-154-5 MLB (Up 15.33 Units)
(Records Below are closed out)
80-76-5--- NFL
279-253-13 NBA
123-116-4 NCAA (bb)
65-77-3 NCAA FOOTBALL
3-4 Misc (down .2 units)

Syracuse +14 V WVU
-----
As much as I would love to root for my grandfather's favorite team (R.I.P. Gramps)
I have to say that this looks a bit fishy. The line has gone no where, WVU has covered their last two with flying colors and JOE public is pounding the Favorite.

Plus we are talking about a Syracuse team that has played TOUGH in every single contest this year, I think this is a no brainer.

Under 43 Rutgers V Louisville

Check out the write up at Cappazoid.blogspot.com




2011
-----
66-61-5 OVERALL
32-22-2 NFL
34-39-3 NCAA FOOTBALL

2010-2011
----------
724-676-31 OVERALL
180-154-5 MLB (Up 15.33 Units)
(Records Below are closed out)
80-76-5--- NFL
279-253-13 NBA
123-116-4 NCAA (bb)
65-77-3 NCAA FOOTBALL
3-4 Misc (down .2 units)

Under 8.5 Series game

World Series

Texas -127

I just think Garcia will get shelled against texas, while Lewis will hold Cardinals to a more reasonable 3 maybe 4 throughout 7

2011
-----
65-59-5 OVERALL
32-22-2 NFL
33-37-3 NCAA FOOTBALL

2010-2011
----------
722-676-31 OVERALL
178-154-5 MLB (Up 13.33 Units)
(Records Below are closed out)
80-76-5--- NFL
279-253-13 NBA
123-116-4 NCAA (bb)
65-77-3 NCAA FOOTBALL
3-4 Misc (down .2 units)

So here is my analysis for Game one of our THURSDAY NIGHT THRILLER.

Firstly I like:
Under 47

I like Under because both of these teams are stronger on defense than they are on offense. Also, UCF is obviously at a different level of program strength in comparison to the winless UAB squad, who by the way have covered 4 in a row ATS. That being said I love the under here, but be prepared for it to be close to the number because both of these teams go under a whole lot!!

I also like:
UCF -16.5

This seems like a lot of chalk to lay on a very mediocre team, especially when this is a national TV showdown which both teams will be a bit nervous on offense.
My old theory in football betting is, If you see a large spread by a mid tier team, and a low over under, usually that can spell ASS WHIPPIN.

Arizona -4.5

This game may be very high scoring, or perhaps UCLA will eat up clock with their running game, either way I thinK Arizona wins by 7 or more. They have not played terribly their record shows very little about them because they play competition that is far beyond their capability. ucla has shown up to play against DECENT competition but I think their secondary gets torched tonight against a pro level QB. LETS HOPE THE RUN D SHOWS UP!!!!

2011
-----
65-59-5 OVERALL
32-22-2 NFL
33-37-3 NCAA FOOTBALL

2010-2011
----------
721-676-31 OVERALL
177-154-5 MLB (Up 11.33 Units)
(Records Below are closed out)
80-76-5--- NFL
279-253-13 NBA
123-116-4 NCAA (bb)
65-77-3 NCAA FOOTBALL
3-4 Misc (down .2 units)

World Series

So here's the skinny. I Handicap Football and Basketball mostly and have been doing so for 4 years now. For some crazy reason, four seasons of football and basketball (2 pro/2 college) per year was not enough, lol so this season I decided to start handicapping baseball. 

this is my record in my first year of handicapping. 

177-154-5 (UP 11.77 Units) 

and subsequently this is my first World Series, but with that said. 

Tonight I am rolling with UNDER 7.5 

Carpenter V Wilson. 

FOR 2 UNITS. 

I do not make a a lot of two unit plays, but folks ...

Here are a couple reasons why. 

-If this game were in texas, and had a DH I would certainly be more weary of Wilson's poor reputation vs left handed batters. BerkMan would be DH, but since he is inept in the outfield, one of the best hitters in baseball is a pinch hitter most of the time in NL games after August. 

-If this were game 5 as opposed to game 1, I would also be worried about the under for a familiarity issue, and CJ Wilson has not pitched so well so far so you have to factor that in. 

-If these Managers let their starters become fatigued throughout the course of the late season and playoffs then I would lean OVER or perhaps toward a side, but because their Bullpens have been on the field as much or MORE than their starters, we have to believe that the ACES from each squad are somewhat fresh. Furthermore these two savvy managers can keep a low scoring game by continuing to have no fear in utilizing their deep bullpens respectively. We have seen pitchers out in the 4th INNING here, completely showing respect for the pitcher/batter matchups. 

Bottom line, TAKE THE UNDER!!!

7.5 all day. 

2011-2012

-----------

65-59-5 OVERALL

32-22-2 NFL

33-37-3 NCAA FOOTBALL

2010-2011

----------

721-676-31 OVERALL

177-154-5 MLB (Up 11.33 Units)

(Records Below are closed out)

80-76-5--- NFL

279-253-13 NBA

123-116-4 NCAA (bb)

65-77-3 NCAA FOOTBALL

3-4 Misc (down .2 units)

-----------

2011-2012
-----------
65-56-5 OVERALL
32-20-2 NFL
33-36-3 NCAA FOOTBALL

2010-2011
----------
721-676-31 OVERALL
177-154-5 MLB (Up 11.33 Units)
(Records Below are closed out)
80-76-5--- NFL
279-253-13 NBA
123-116-4 NCAA (bb)
65-77-3 NCAA FOOTBALL
3-4 Misc (down .2 units)
65-56-5 OVERALL
32-20-2 NFL
33-36-3 NCAA FOOTBALL

Tonight's Tuesday Football

Yes folks tuesday football is back in action we have FIU taking on Arkansas State, my word what a barn burner!

despite the pleasantries we have business to attend to so lets get down to the breakdown.

FIU +3

I see a lot of good things from the stat sheets of both of tonights squads. I think the Ark St. D is very solid against the pass, and I have seen that they limit the big play in their past contests. They do not let up many TDs through the air, and through their troubles have slowed down some decent running teams, but havent really shut anyone down.

FIU is a solid team dependent on who you talk to. they have two good running backs who split their duties, they have a solid QB, who has only thrown one pick all season (he did miss a game due to injury) and that tandem has lead FIU to some good performances against tough competition.

But there are two things that make me NOT want to take ARK ST.

1.Ark St-8 INT's, 9 Fumbles, 5 Lost.
&
2. Ark St hasn't beaten or played well against any decent team. All their wins came against current 1 and 2 win teams.


I feel that FIU is a high scoring squad when they play teams at their mediocre level of competition, and to be frank, although STATE held V tech to 26 points, We have to remember what kind of offense they run at V Tech. They run and run and run some more, play action short passes, options and off tackle running. They did have some good defensive possessions against V Tech but they CERTAINLY did NOT stop them by any means.

Part of Defense is OFFENSE, and FIELD POSITION. the reason Beamer's boys, and everyone else who has beaten ARK ST can keep in the game, despite a solid defensive approach, is because the offense is nothing to write home about.

A QB w. 6 TD 8 INT?
A Running game with no 200 yard performances?

Lets not forget their big wins were over teams with -18 and -20 spreads!!
they in fact, have covered EVERY TIME they have been a favorite this season!!
while FIU is 3-3 ATS and has only been a an underdog of under 6 points once, against a much stronger team in LOUISVILLE (who they beat on the field)

I just think this whole mess has to be a game where the oddsmaker gave the home team the favorite and the average bettor who knows Jack shit about these two teams is going to look at the V tech game and their decent defense and say ... ill roll with the home favorite who has covered 5 of 6 ATS this year.

to me thats a disaster.

Florida International.

Miami +7
-----

Miami cannot come out flat tonight in a division game. They will rise to the occasion.


Miami +13 TEASE W/ OVER 39.5
------
Miami keeps it close by scoring and playing good D and special teams !!!

5-0 Sunday.

Okay folks, Still slightly under .500 in College football, but after a 6-1 week in the NFL I am pretty confident that our research methods and betting angles are starting to really hit their stride this season. Lets find the right monday night play tonight to start off the week with a BANG!!



2011-2012
-----------
65-56-5 OVERALL
32-20-2 NFL
33-36-3 NCAA FOOTBALL

2010-2011
----------
721-676-31 OVERALL
177-154-5 MLB (Up 11.33 Units)
(Records Below are closed out)
80-76-5--- NFL
279-253-13 NBA
123-116-4 NCAA (bb)
65-77-3 NCAA FOOTBALL
3-4 Misc (down .2 units)

Dallas

I think dallas is going to hang in this game, they can keep pace with the pats. Pats have covered four of 5 ATS and that to me spells trouble against this team coming off the bye

Ravens minus 7

Steeler under forty

1 o clock

Philadelphia -3
-----
SKill level in this game will be a factor. I know Eagles have been weak but, this game is a comeback game for them .


Detroit UNDER 46 V SF
--
Would love to lay action on the forty niners, but I think either way we have a low scoring contest here.

Today's College

Utah +6
----
Followed my man JT at CAPPAZOID.BLOGSPOT.COM, but I also agree that UTAH is a solid program that plays stiff competition. This seems like a sensible play.

Mich V Mich St Under 49
----
I like michigan in this game but I am always weary of a top 15 team being an underdog. Even SDSU held Mich to a reasonable score and I think this rivalry game will be full of solid defense. Plus with a team like Michigan that can score 50 themselves you know STATE is going to keep the ball on the ground.

Texas +7 V OK St
-----
Every year we have a team that is completely overrated, and this year my boyz the COWBOYS are IT! they have only played one solid team (a&M) and they were lucky to find a second half collapse in A&M's offense. Im not saying they're not talented, but just on who they have played recently alone, they will be lucky to win this game at ALL!

Florida -2
-----
Florida is out of the BCS top 25, their QB is hurt and everyone has given up on them. But i see this as a complete trap game for the Auburn bettor. Florida has one of football's best offensive minds in Charlie Weiss, they are a FOOTBALL POWERHOUSE, so I know whomever they bring off the bench to play QB will be very talented at the least, and most importantly, AUBURN's D is as soft as puppy poop.

Texas a & M -8
----
I caught this line early before it went up. This one is a no brainer for me, you got a highly publicized baylor team with a heisman candidate at QB, they are #20 while a & m is #21, yet they are catching a TON of CHALK?? no thanks Ill roll with A&M knowing that the competition they have played this year will prepare them for an explosive and talented baylor team.


2011-2012
-----------
57-54-5 OVERALL
27-20-2 NFL
30-34-3 NCAA FOOTBALL

2010-2011
----------
721-676-31 OVERALL
177-154-5 MLB (Up 11.33 Units)
(Records Below are closed out)
80-76-5--- NFL
279-253-13 NBA
123-116-4 NCAA (bb)
65-77-3 NCAA FOOTBALL
3-4 Misc (down .2 units)

Brewers +108
----

I just think that Brew Crew against a lefty is an advantage. I also think that The Brewers built some momentum last night with a convincing win with their worst pitcher on the mound, and I think this game will be close early with garcia getting hit the second and third time around.

Gotta roll with it.

San Jose St. +6

Public all over Hawaii, plus with betting the under I pretty much guarantee a Hawaii win, so I have to roll with this in the event that SJ ST.'s running back is really that big of a pickup to their offense.

This is the number one bet in Las Vegas and after last night's huge money cash in on USC i just dont know how the number can go down. Plus these two teams are not so far apart in skill level, although Hawaii's QB is very dominant in that league and in west coast play, I think SJ. ST brings the pain tonight... basically I have to bet this if im betting the under, thats how I see it.

Bad night last night... good one today

Firstly I think that this game is a complete tossup.

But i think the numbers say a lot of the story. 4 of 5 hawaii games have gone over and three of those four were higher numbers than this. San jose st has gone 3-3 on the over this year, and has very lil D and the capability to score themselves. To me this is a no brainer, with an over under of 55, this looks like a BLOWOUT by Hawaii is coming! but even if for some reason state stays in the game, it will be by RUNNING the football, I think this game comes very close to the margin but stays at around 54 points. 34-20 Hawaii or 30 24 Hawaii.

I really wanna lay some action on san jose st, homecoming and the whole nine, but I think Hawaii is too explosive for that, so ill play the unit on ...


UNDER 56


2011-2012
-----------
55-54-5 OVERALL
27-20-2 NFL
28-34-3 NCAA FOOTBALL

2010-2011
----------
721-675-31 OVERALL
177-153-5 MLB (Up 12.33 Units)
(Records Below are closed out)
80-76-5--- NFL
279-253-13 NBA
123-116-4 NCAA (bb)
65-77-3 NCAA FOOTBALL
3-4 Misc (down .2 units)

Cal pick SECOND HALF

UNDER 9 STL V MILWAUKEE

cal +3
---
cal will play better th is week, I always like to factor in the level of comp played the previous
week. the edge goes to cal for having played a tough oregon team.

Cal will play better D tonight and the overrated USC team will lose another chip shot game

Air force -7
----
So here it is, SDSU has not really played well against any of the better teams they have played, and most notably, they could not score on a pretty average Michigan D , only putting up 7 points. I agree with those who say that they know how to stop the Triple option, but air force is a much more complex version than that of a Cal Poly state or even the Army. The Air force offense is potent, has been potent and with few exceptions will always be a high powered POTENT offense, because of their schematics.

I think the other factor here, not on the field is the Idea that AF has only covered ATS once this whole season!! now their playing what seems to be an evenly mediocre team in SDSU and they are favored by 7? Granted, they are at home and SDSU is not playing well as of late, but this seems like a couple points away from what I would have envisioned.


2011-2012
-----------
55-51-5 OVERALL
27-20-2 NFL
28-31-3 NCAA FOOTBALL

2010-2011
----------
721-675-31 OVERALL
176-153-5 MLB (Up 11.33 Units)
(Records Below are closed out)
80-76-5--- NFL
279-253-13 NBA
123-116-4 NCAA (bb)
65-77-3 NCAA FOOTBALL
3-4 Misc (down .2 units)

Under 7 STL CARPENTER V BREWERS GALLARDO
-----
Low number for these two high scoring teams, I think that both pitchers bring their A game. Carpenter has been excellent in the playoffs in his career and even better against the brewers, while Gallardo has crushed his opponents all season with the exception of the cardinals. Seems to me like Gallardo has something to prove.

Baseball and Update.

Texas -122 Harrison

2011-2012
-----------
55-51-5 OVERALL
27-20-2 NFL
28-31-3 NCAA FOOTBALL

2010-2011
----------
720-675-30 OVERALL
175-153-4 MLB (Up 10.33 Units)
(Records Below are closed out)
80-76-5--- NFL
279-253-13 NBA
123-116-4 NCAA (bb)
65-77-3 NCAA FOOTBALL
3-4 Misc (down .2 units)

DETROIT V TEXAS UNDER 8.5 -105







AND DETROIT -126

UNDER 47 Chicago V Detroit
---
People forget that Detroit's d is part of this whole equation. They also have a good running game. Chicago throws a ton, but they throw short passes, they also make teams earn their points and dont give up a ton of big plays.

This has to be the play in my eyes, but I have been off on OVER UNDER for the past week so forgive me if I am wrong.

Bears +7 Took em twice when the line went up i bought again

SUNDAY NIGHT

4-2-1 on the day in NFL

SUNDAY NIGHT PLAY:
ATLANTA +5.5

I think that the superbowl champs will come out firing, but as I have explained in the past ATLANTA is an entirely different team at home. Plus why is this line less than a touchdown?? should at least be seven after the start Green Bay has had and the ass whipping green bay gave atlanta last year in the playoffs. I think this is not only a revenge game for atlanta, but also a bit of a mismatch as ATLANTA's passing attack will be very successful against the packers who, lets face it, havent been so wonderful this year in the secondary. Compliment that with the fact that the PUBLIC is all over Green Bay, ill take the home dog like I have most of the day today.

2011-2012
-----------
54-49-5 OVERALL
26-18-2 NFL
28-31-3 NCAA FOOTBALL

2010-2011
----------
718-675-30 OVERALL
173-153-4 MLB (Up 8.33 Units)
(Records Below are closed out)
80-76-5--- NFL
279-253-13 NBA
123-116-4 NCAA (bb)
65-77-3 NCAA FOOTBALL
3-4 Misc (down .2 units)

Minnesota -3
---
My mom convinced me of this one, I cant think that Donovan is going to let this one slip at home, might end up close and be a push, but I think they win by 7. Arizona just cant close the deal on games, they have no running game, they only have one true stud receiver and its no secret that he will have 8-12 touches a game, I think their offense overall is okay but not enough to really compete this year.

Carolina +6.5
------------
I like Carolina In this game for a few reasons. Firstly the Panthers should have won on the field last game, yes they got the backdoor cover, but the bottom line is that they turned the ball over several times to a much more reputable team and still covered the short margin. This week they play a Hot New Orleans team who has only lost to the superbowl champs. New orleans has covered spreads of 3.5 , 5 and 8, in the last three weeks and I Think this one is going to be much closer than people think. Green Bay gave the formula for keeping Saints D off balance and as long as Carolina plays time of possession and their defense shows up, this could easily be an upset.

OAKLAND +4.5-110
--------
Out of all the plays on this card OAK is the one im most nervous about. But here it goes. Oakland is very well coached and I personally believe their ground game will give houston some trouble. Plus Johnson is coming off what looked to be a very tough injury last week and he is still questionable at best for the game today. Oakland also has the front line to stop the run and although foster will give them trouble I think Houston laying only five at home to a team that caught a tough loss, and after their big win over PITT last week says to me ....TRAP GAME!!!

BUFFALO +3-120
----
Folks, Its the 2011 season. Not 2006, Not 2010, but 2011, and this season is the YEAR OF THE BILLS. Sounds crazy, but when you look at it, (No not on madden) the bills are in reality the better team here. They have a consistent passing and running attack. their defense is well coached and has quick, young defensive backs to contain Philly passing attack, and lets face it, the Eagles CANNOT run the ball consistently. Many people think that this will be a huge bounce back game for the Eagles, but honestly I just dont think they have it all together yet, it may not be their year, sorry Philly!

INDIANAPOLIS u38.5-110
-----
Indy V KC, the battle of the misfit bandits!! This game should go under, Indy has a decent QB in Painter, but I believe sound coaching would say that INDY needs to get a win by keeping the ball on the ground as much as possible and using their superior pass rush to keep Matt Cassell running scared.

NEW ENGLAND u51-110
-----
2 main points here.
1) these two teams know each other and their rivalry should speak to fewer points in the passing game for both teams.
2.) The New England D is weak against the run in a full field setting. In situations where the other team is beyond the New England 40 yrd line the DBs do not have as much of a chance to come up and stop the run, this will cause a lot of running and short passing from the jets. Not to mention the idea that the jets KNOW they cannot keep up with NEW ENGLAND in a shoot out, so they will be forced to win through solid D on third Downs and Time of Possession.

TENNESSEE +3+115
-----
I think we need to get used to the Idea that Pittsburgh is not, and I repeat NOT, making the playoffs this year. Tennessee has had some trouble in their ground game, but I think the media onslaught of Chris Johnson in this past week will make him play a bit harder and Tennessee will look to win on the field in Pitt... Call me crazy but I think Tennesee is gonna keep this one very very close.

Record UPDATE---- NFL COMING

2011-2012
-----------
50-47-4 OVERALL
22-16-1 NFL
28-31-3 NCAA FOOTBALL

2010-2011
----------
718-675-30 OVERALL
173-153-4 MLB (Up 8.33 Units)
(Records Below are closed out)
80-76-5--- NFL
279-253-13 NBA
123-116-4 NCAA (bb)
65-77-3 NCAA FOOTBALL
3-4 Misc (down .2 units)

Rangers -112

RUTGERS +7-115

ARK -10

OKLA -10.5

So Miss PICK EM

Crew -166 Correction

brew Crew -150

Play and RECORD UPDATE!!!

Fresno +20.5
-----
A couple factors make this an attractive game for me. Firstly, the Huge Public Cover last night was nearly a backdoor cover for Cal, which leads me to believe this line should be higher. Also Fresno is not in the same league as Boise, but they ARE playing on Primetime TV, and they HAVE played a very tough schedule so far with Cal, Nebraska, and OLE Miss all on their schedule. While Boise has beat up on pretty mediocre teams Such as Tulsa and Toledo, with the exception of GEORGIA (4 WEEKS AGO!!!) they havent been in the mindstate of playing anyone of decent rapport. Nonetheless, these two teams are familiar with one another and I see this as a TRAP GAME FOR BOISE, and for the PUBLIC BETTOR. BOISE has covered some LARGE CHALK and in some instances has done so by the Hair of their chinny chin chin to put it nicely.




2011-2012
-----------
46-46-4 OVERALL
22-16-1 NFL
24-30-3 NCAA FOOTBALL

2010-2011
----------
716-675-30 OVERALL
171-153-4 MLB (Up 6.33 Units)
(Records Below are closed out)
80-76-5--- NFL
279-253-13 NBA
123-116-4 NCAA (bb)
65-77-3 NCAA FOOTBALL
3-4 Misc (down .2 units)

Cal plus 24 Game over 66.5

Yanks -174

Arizona -110

Yanks -120

Tampa and Under

Tampa -10


Under 40


Tampa -6 and Under 44 Tease

going for broke, or going for the gold?

2011-2012
-----------
45-43-4 OVERALL
21-15-1 NFL
24-28-3 NCAA FOOTBALL

2010-2011
----------
714-674-30 OVERALL
169-152-4 MLB (Up 6.09 Units)
(Records Below are closed out)
80-76-5--- NFL
279-253-13 NBA
123-116-4 NCAA (bb)
65-77-3 NCAA FOOTBALL
3-4 Misc (down .2 units)

2night

sebathia -104

Under 20.5 Baltimore

Over 7 Philly V St louis
----

St. Louis is going to make a hell of a push to win this game and they will have to score some runs to do so. I think this will be close to the total but looking at a 5-3 game as my model. I think Lee being in the lineup is like having an extra hitter for Philadelphia and St. Louis HAS to score at least 3 to 4 runs to win this game.

Lee is excellent but will allow at least 2 runs tonight, while carpenter is solid but is not going to have enough to keep the phillies from hitting the ball at home.

2 units on

Ravens -5



three team nine point tease
Ravens +4
Under 49
Tampa -1

Denver +13

Denver +13

Call me nuts but I dont think the Packers Beat up on Denver like that today, I think they win by ten but not 2 tds.

New England V Oakland
--
Over 56

ALSO ARIZONA

ARIZONA +1
----
I like Arizona A LOT in this game. The Arizona Cardinals are an entirely different team at home. They are not the best team in the NFC, but they are a lot better than they have been playing their first three games. They tackle well, have interior defense to slow down the Giants rushing attack, and can score on offense. we need to give Kolb some time to grow with this team, a quarterback needs time to gell with his offense.

Sunday Early

Under 47.5 Dallas V Detroit
----
This line is lower most places, I would have jumped on it either way at 46 maybe even 45. The bottom line here is out of the six games these two teams have played the over has hit 5 times. Which to me means that logically vegas would inflate the number to make sure the trend doesnt give away too many chips. But instead the number continues to sink, and I think these two teams play a closer, slower game than many anticipate. Dallas has good defensive backs, Newmann is back and starting to get his feet under him. Dallas will also look to run the ball and maintain time of possession and I think we have a 24-20 Win by Dallas in a very sharp over under play.

The lions have not played the most incredible competition so far, and i think they may have a slow first half against the battle tested Cowboys.

Carolina Panthers +6.5
----
I like carolina for a few reasons. Firstly, I think Cam Newton is coming into his own and this defense although tough and athletic, tends to be a bit slow on their feet, which against this quick offense is a disaster waiting to happen. Secondly with the Bears having not played so well their last game, you would expect a large bounce back and with that normally comes a large line. I mean think about it, the number 2 ranked NFC team coming into the season vs Carolina, who can barely get a win and has an unproven rookie quarterback? I think I have to roll with the panthers here, they tend to stay in games and I think this is one which I would like to see them win on the field.

Texans -3.5
------
Whats similar about the Texans and the Ravens?
-Quick running back who catches the ball out of the backfield and can also run for over 100.
- Consistent QB with an excellent arm.
-Good linebacking core to stop interior passing.
- Solid Pass rush.
- Excellent Receiving core to keep DBs from supporting run.

The bottom line here is there is a distinct reason the Steelers are catching points, and that is because they have a very hard time stopping the run right now, and Houston, if they play at their highest level, is a very hard team to stop on offense. houston has not played the roughest of competition yet, but the steelers havent won against any real difficult teams either. I think that this is a very close game and that Houston wins By four in a second half comeback. 35-31


Under 43.5 Philly V San Fran
---
So here is the skinny on this game...
Philly and Mike Vick are pissed off and when their pissed off they usually score 35-40 points themselves on a lowly opponent such as San Fran. But this game is not what it seems to be. This game is a complete mismatch game in my humble opinion, but instead of the mismatches being from offense to defense, they are from defense to offense.

San Fran has no real passing game. They can throw to their Tight end who is very good, but as far as throwing down the field, Crabtree is a bit overhyped, and Alex smith cant really toss it under pressure. Pressure is exactly what Philly brings to the table. I know they got run over last week by the giants, but I think their blitzing schemes will be improved, and their quick Dbs and Line backers will swarm Frank Gore today.

I also think that San Fran can contain the Philadelphia offense in some ways. 49ers do have a solid interior defense and they can tackle well to prevent a lot of the YAC yards and screen opportunities the eagles attempt to create. They also have decent corners, although I think Philly will pop one or two long plays to their wideouts.

But all in all, I cannot see this game being a shootout, I know some people will adamantly disagree, but for me I think this is a 20-13 game in the eagles favor, maybe 20-10 .

Record UPDATE---- NFL COMING

2011-2012
-----------
40-37-4 OVERALL
16-9-1 NFL
24-28-3 NCAA FOOTBALL

2010-2011
----------
713-674-30 OVERALL
168-152-4 MLB (Up 5.09 Units)
(Records Below are closed out)
80-76-5--- NFL
279-253-13 NBA
123-116-4 NCAA (bb)
65-77-3 NCAA FOOTBALL
3-4 Misc (down .2 units)

Hedging the bet

Alabama Second half -6.5

UNDER 55.5 WISCONSIN V NEBRASKA

Both of these teams score in the bunches, but neither has played ANYONE of reasonable caliber at this point. This is going to be a cultureshock for both of these teams and although scoring will happen in highlight fashion at certain points in this game, I think it slightly goes under..

Rangers

Holland -130
---
Rangers coming to form today behind a solid pitcher and a big need for this game.

K state +3

K state
-----
I have to do this because this is an extremely short line and for a team like baylor that blows people out to have a short ass line like this against a home dog with an average offense, I have to roll with K state, sorry CAPPAZOID.BLOGSPOT.com I usually roll with you but not this time!

baseball

Diamondbacks +118 Kennedy V Gallardo

Two very good teams, very good pitchers, but I love Kennedy in this game.

Have to do it.

West virginia -18
-------
Okay so this bet is completely square, but there are some sharp angles to look at here. Firstly, the two teams are OPPOSITE ATS this season. BG is 3-1 ATS with their only loss against the spread coming on national tv. West Virginia Got their ass handed to them last week both on the field and against the spread. WVU is 1-3 ATS and they got embarrassed on TV last week against the number one BCS team .

On top of all that is the RCF (recent competition factor), whereby the talented WVU squad is coming off a game against one of the three best teams in the country, and Bowling Green is coming off a contest with with an average Miami Ohio team, and they put the wood to them late in the game. I just cant fathom how BG (who I am a fan of) will stay within this margin as WVU tries to get its wheels turning once again.

over unders

under 44 florida v alabama
-----
just a real low low number for the amount that these two have scored, plus these coaches have worked 2gether in the past and their knowledge will help on D.


over 60 auburn game
--
This is a huge square play but i think the total is very sharp on these two DEFENSELESS squads.... hopefully a few special teams plays put this over the top.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL !!!

IOWA ST +9-110
Iowa state has been a solid team all season and although I admit they have not played the Stiffest competition, they have proven to me that they are a solid defensive squad with a lot of passion. I think this game will be much closer than the odds represent and its very possible that STATE wins on the field.

ARKANSAS +2.5-110
Arkansas got their ass whipped last week, but in the meantime, they got their ass whipped by one of the three best teams in the country. With both of these teams coming off a loss I expect their preparation to be at the highest level, and arkansas offense is going to have a challenge in trying to hang with Tech's high powered offense. But I always like to use the Rule of "who did you play last week?" and alabama will have arkansas ready to play a weaker team this week.

BOSTON COLLEGE -1-110
Boston College is always a wild card play, but I think their defense and their pride in the program will push them over the top in this one. Wake forest brings very little to the table defensively so this could be a good chance for BC to push the envelope on offense.

VIRGINIA TECH -7-110
This game has been circled on my calendar for 2 weeks now. I have been talking about how this line should be ten all week. Clemson has played well in the last two weeks admittedly, and had a surprising victory over Florida State. But with all the press Florida State received prior to their first loss, I almost feel that they werent really up for the game. To top it off, Clemson has always had trouble on the road, and I think their two home victories have been over GLAMOURIZED and we will see BEAMER BALL today like we have never seen it before!!

WESTERN MICH +2.5-110
So... UCONN.... not impressive. Western Mich also not incredible, but with the line movement and the higher level of competition that Western has played, I will roll with them @ 2.5 .

FLORIDA +4.5-110
CALL ME CRAZY, but I THINK FLORIDA IS READY!!! They may lose this game and ALABAMA may just crush another short point spread, but I think for the line to be this short and sinking, I GOTTA play sharp and roll with the GATORS!! HEADED TO THE SWAMP BABY!!!


2011-2012
-----------
35-30-4 OVERALL
16-9-1 NFL
19-21-3 NCAA FOOTBALL

2010-2011
----------
712-673-30 OVERALL
167-151-4 MLB (Up 5.27 Units)
(Records Below are closed out)
80-76-5--- NFL
279-253-13 NBA
123-116-4 NCAA (bb)
65-77-3 NCAA FOOTBALL
3-4 Misc (down .2 units)