MNF Breakdown

Final assessment:
This game scares me because the read I am getting is screaming Kansas City as the sharp home dog, but a few things are not right about this game. Firstly it seems as if we will have a high scoring game on our hands because this 44.5 is right around the highest total we have seen from these two teams this season. But, oddly enough their last game only included 37 points. Kansas City should be able to pass all over SD especially in the RZ where Cassell is excellent and the Bowe Breaston combination is really tough to stop. Yet by the same token I also think that SD should be able to run in the RZ against KC, who seems to have some trouble in their interior. Also the game scares me because KC has been like a free handout all year for bettors, they have won 4 straight ATS and that trend began with an easy cover against the chargers in San Diego. To me, the cheifs catching 3 is not an issue at all, its just that they are home and the public is all over SD, which perplexes me, because as we have said many times, San Diego is having a mediocre year, against mediocre competition and have been pretty disappointing ATS.
I guess this is how I see it.
20% of the public is on KC +3 with a sinking line, with the other 80% obviously on SD.
here's where it gets interesting...
78% of the public is on the over 44.5 according to vegasinsider, but if you look at the sportsbook chart where the actual money value is assessed, the 78% on the over is still less monetary value than the 20% thats on KC, so by definition it is LESS of a public play even though many people are on it. I like the over because the under hit with flying colors only 3 weeks ago with these same 2 teams, and the over under line only went down a half point.

plays: Kansas city +3 and OVER 44.5

2011-2012
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93-74-6 OVERALL
41-25-3 NFL
52-49-3 NCAA FOOTBALL

2010-2011
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727-679-31 OVERALL
183-157-6 MLB (Up 15.23 Units)
80-76-5--- NFL
279-253-13 NBA
123-116-4 NCAA (bb)
65-77-3 NCAA FOOTBALL
3-4 Misc (down .2 units)