Sunday, October 2, 2011

Sunday Early

Under 47.5 Dallas V Detroit
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This line is lower most places, I would have jumped on it either way at 46 maybe even 45. The bottom line here is out of the six games these two teams have played the over has hit 5 times. Which to me means that logically vegas would inflate the number to make sure the trend doesnt give away too many chips. But instead the number continues to sink, and I think these two teams play a closer, slower game than many anticipate. Dallas has good defensive backs, Newmann is back and starting to get his feet under him. Dallas will also look to run the ball and maintain time of possession and I think we have a 24-20 Win by Dallas in a very sharp over under play.

The lions have not played the most incredible competition so far, and i think they may have a slow first half against the battle tested Cowboys.

Carolina Panthers +6.5
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I like carolina for a few reasons. Firstly, I think Cam Newton is coming into his own and this defense although tough and athletic, tends to be a bit slow on their feet, which against this quick offense is a disaster waiting to happen. Secondly with the Bears having not played so well their last game, you would expect a large bounce back and with that normally comes a large line. I mean think about it, the number 2 ranked NFC team coming into the season vs Carolina, who can barely get a win and has an unproven rookie quarterback? I think I have to roll with the panthers here, they tend to stay in games and I think this is one which I would like to see them win on the field.

Texans -3.5
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Whats similar about the Texans and the Ravens?
-Quick running back who catches the ball out of the backfield and can also run for over 100.
- Consistent QB with an excellent arm.
-Good linebacking core to stop interior passing.
- Solid Pass rush.
- Excellent Receiving core to keep DBs from supporting run.

The bottom line here is there is a distinct reason the Steelers are catching points, and that is because they have a very hard time stopping the run right now, and Houston, if they play at their highest level, is a very hard team to stop on offense. houston has not played the roughest of competition yet, but the steelers havent won against any real difficult teams either. I think that this is a very close game and that Houston wins By four in a second half comeback. 35-31


Under 43.5 Philly V San Fran
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So here is the skinny on this game...
Philly and Mike Vick are pissed off and when their pissed off they usually score 35-40 points themselves on a lowly opponent such as San Fran. But this game is not what it seems to be. This game is a complete mismatch game in my humble opinion, but instead of the mismatches being from offense to defense, they are from defense to offense.

San Fran has no real passing game. They can throw to their Tight end who is very good, but as far as throwing down the field, Crabtree is a bit overhyped, and Alex smith cant really toss it under pressure. Pressure is exactly what Philly brings to the table. I know they got run over last week by the giants, but I think their blitzing schemes will be improved, and their quick Dbs and Line backers will swarm Frank Gore today.

I also think that San Fran can contain the Philadelphia offense in some ways. 49ers do have a solid interior defense and they can tackle well to prevent a lot of the YAC yards and screen opportunities the eagles attempt to create. They also have decent corners, although I think Philly will pop one or two long plays to their wideouts.

But all in all, I cannot see this game being a shootout, I know some people will adamantly disagree, but for me I think this is a 20-13 game in the eagles favor, maybe 20-10 .

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