UNC -8 V Wisconsin
-----
Wisconsin will keep this close in the first half, but once the heels have a chance to reassess their defense,and slow white man offense, at half time, they will keep a good 4 to 6 point margin and cover with free throws by the end of the game. This is a big bounce back game for UNC, I even feel they might have been looking past UNLV to this game with wisconsin, although UNLV just plain old took it to them.
Nonetheless, that was the wakeup call they needed, and Wisconsin can watch as much film on how to beat UNC as they want, that wont make their team quicker or more athletic, which is how UNLV beat UNC.
Wednesday, November 30, 2011
UCSB +3.5 V UNLV
--------
As my boy Johnny T would say, heres a good spot for a let down. I think that UCSB is coming off a tough overtime loss vs a very good san diego st team, one which they should have won. They are a very solid unit and have the ability to score the rock on anyone, while possessing the athletes on their roster which allow them to play defense against high paced squads like UNLV. This is going to be a tough game for UCSB, but Nevada Las Vegas is coming off the biggest win in their history, and may only win this game in the closing seconds, if at all. Plus the oddsmakers obviously see this as a close game, and the line is sinking.
Penn State V BC UNDER 123
-------
BC is not proficient on offense. They are definitely better than they have played so far, but they have also had some very disheartening losses to in state rivals Holy Cross, and Umass Amherst, in which games their offense was not impressive. Penn State plays a very slow brand of basketball and will look to get out to an early lead and take the air out of the ball against BC. This game is perfectly set up for a close 60-55 contest, and I LOVE the under here.
--------
As my boy Johnny T would say, heres a good spot for a let down. I think that UCSB is coming off a tough overtime loss vs a very good san diego st team, one which they should have won. They are a very solid unit and have the ability to score the rock on anyone, while possessing the athletes on their roster which allow them to play defense against high paced squads like UNLV. This is going to be a tough game for UCSB, but Nevada Las Vegas is coming off the biggest win in their history, and may only win this game in the closing seconds, if at all. Plus the oddsmakers obviously see this as a close game, and the line is sinking.
Penn State V BC UNDER 123
-------
BC is not proficient on offense. They are definitely better than they have played so far, but they have also had some very disheartening losses to in state rivals Holy Cross, and Umass Amherst, in which games their offense was not impressive. Penn State plays a very slow brand of basketball and will look to get out to an early lead and take the air out of the ball against BC. This game is perfectly set up for a close 60-55 contest, and I LOVE the under here.
Tuesday, November 29, 2011
SUPER TUESDAY
georgia Tech -2 V Northwestern
----
Northwestern can put up points, and they do have a 6-11 center who has a lot of promise and upside. But they are not very good on defense. Last year they beat the pants off of G tech out in Evanston, and I think this is a huge revenge game tonight. G tech will be exploring its options on offense, attempting to get more production out of their forward positions by going to the old Phoenix Suns 4 out 1 in offense. I think this will be good against Northwestern as they tend to be very poor at rotation and help D and this will force them to either spread the floor on d or give open shots to Glen Rice Jr. I think Tech wins this one.
Duke +7.5
--------
So am I a complete sucker? Maybe. I prefer to think of this as smart betting. There are three scenarios I see that are possible here tonight.
1) I am wrong and duke gets the doors blown off by an unproved Ohio St. Team
2.) Duke wins on the floor and the line movement never mattered (5-7.5)
3.) The line move mattered and Vegas splits the Ohio St. winning action between those who caught the game at 7 or below, and those who caught it above.
So in 2 of the 3 scenarios DUKE is the bet at this current line. So thats what I will take. I understand that Duke is mismatched down low, but perhaps their excellent coaching and player intellect will help get ohio state in foul trouble. As a baller I cant fade Duke in this one, especially because they are 3-4 ats so I wouldnt put it past the oddsmakers to make a false line and see who falls for it.
----
Northwestern can put up points, and they do have a 6-11 center who has a lot of promise and upside. But they are not very good on defense. Last year they beat the pants off of G tech out in Evanston, and I think this is a huge revenge game tonight. G tech will be exploring its options on offense, attempting to get more production out of their forward positions by going to the old Phoenix Suns 4 out 1 in offense. I think this will be good against Northwestern as they tend to be very poor at rotation and help D and this will force them to either spread the floor on d or give open shots to Glen Rice Jr. I think Tech wins this one.
Duke +7.5
--------
So am I a complete sucker? Maybe. I prefer to think of this as smart betting. There are three scenarios I see that are possible here tonight.
1) I am wrong and duke gets the doors blown off by an unproved Ohio St. Team
2.) Duke wins on the floor and the line movement never mattered (5-7.5)
3.) The line move mattered and Vegas splits the Ohio St. winning action between those who caught the game at 7 or below, and those who caught it above.
So in 2 of the 3 scenarios DUKE is the bet at this current line. So thats what I will take. I understand that Duke is mismatched down low, but perhaps their excellent coaching and player intellect will help get ohio state in foul trouble. As a baller I cant fade Duke in this one, especially because they are 3-4 ats so I wouldnt put it past the oddsmakers to make a false line and see who falls for it.
Virginia -3.5 V Michigan
----
well doesnt this seem a bit fishy. Michigan is a very athletic team and from what I have seen they certainly can hang with the best competition in the Land. Tonight though, they face a veteran, hungry Virginia squad who really has not been getting much attention. Virginia boasts a starting lineup with 4 returning starters. They have a 7 footer who blocks shots at a rapid rate (sene) and a very solid defensive backcourt to counter Tim Hardaway JR. They also have some new players off the bench who can help on Michigan's athletic backcourt. Michigan is going to play at a pace tonight that they are not comfortable with, and that pace is called
"half court offense". It will take place on both sides of the court, and they will need to execute against a very experienced, very disciplined squad on the road. Virginia should not BLOW OUT michigan by any means, but if there were a bad matchup for michigan, this is the one.
2011-2012
-----
160-144-9 OVERALL
64-50-4 NFL
79-83-4 NCAA FOOTBALL
17-11-1 NCAA BASKETBALL
----
well doesnt this seem a bit fishy. Michigan is a very athletic team and from what I have seen they certainly can hang with the best competition in the Land. Tonight though, they face a veteran, hungry Virginia squad who really has not been getting much attention. Virginia boasts a starting lineup with 4 returning starters. They have a 7 footer who blocks shots at a rapid rate (sene) and a very solid defensive backcourt to counter Tim Hardaway JR. They also have some new players off the bench who can help on Michigan's athletic backcourt. Michigan is going to play at a pace tonight that they are not comfortable with, and that pace is called
"half court offense". It will take place on both sides of the court, and they will need to execute against a very experienced, very disciplined squad on the road. Virginia should not BLOW OUT michigan by any means, but if there were a bad matchup for michigan, this is the one.
2011-2012
-----
160-144-9 OVERALL
64-50-4 NFL
79-83-4 NCAA FOOTBALL
17-11-1 NCAA BASKETBALL
Monday, November 28, 2011
Montana St +3.5 V SJSU
----
I bet on San Jose St. a couple times last year and they are a formidable program, but I have to say they look abysmal this year. Their last win was a 100 point performance against some nonsense school called HOLY NAMES, which was not even available for wagering purposes. Montana St is coming off a tough loss against Idaho, and I think they bounce back against SJSU who really is not good on Defense. SJSU allowed 84 to santa clara and over 80 to San Francisco. They also let CAL POLY SLO score 79 on them. They are not... not not good on D.
This line opened at 4.5 because Montana's best player Singleton is banged up, but I think its sinking because A) It wouldnt matter if he were out and B) he is going to play tonight according to reliable sources.
----
I bet on San Jose St. a couple times last year and they are a formidable program, but I have to say they look abysmal this year. Their last win was a 100 point performance against some nonsense school called HOLY NAMES, which was not even available for wagering purposes. Montana St is coming off a tough loss against Idaho, and I think they bounce back against SJSU who really is not good on Defense. SJSU allowed 84 to santa clara and over 80 to San Francisco. They also let CAL POLY SLO score 79 on them. They are not... not not good on D.
This line opened at 4.5 because Montana's best player Singleton is banged up, but I think its sinking because A) It wouldnt matter if he were out and B) he is going to play tonight according to reliable sources.
Tonights basketball AND UPDATE
Another losing week in the nfl by one game, but I have confidence that our winning weeks will be much more substantial of a gain then the losses we have sustained here.
LOUISVILLE -11 V LONG BEACH ST
---
LBSU is a very solid team, but tonight they play a complete mismatch and vegas is making no bones about the talent and coaching discrepancy. The problem, for Long Beach, is that they play the same type of game that Louisville does. They have a guard based offense with athletic big men and a good press. Problem being that tonight their best player, ware, will be guarded by a three man rotation at pg headed by team star SIVA. This line is what it is for a reason, it will be a 9 or ten point game for a while and fouls will put this over the margin.
2011-2012
-----
157-143-9 OVERALL
63-50-4 NFL
79-83-4 NCAA FOOTBALL
15-10-1 NCAA BASKETBALL
LOUISVILLE -11 V LONG BEACH ST
---
LBSU is a very solid team, but tonight they play a complete mismatch and vegas is making no bones about the talent and coaching discrepancy. The problem, for Long Beach, is that they play the same type of game that Louisville does. They have a guard based offense with athletic big men and a good press. Problem being that tonight their best player, ware, will be guarded by a three man rotation at pg headed by team star SIVA. This line is what it is for a reason, it will be a 9 or ten point game for a while and fouls will put this over the margin.
Vanderbilt -4 V Xavier
-----
Not only is it odd that the lessor ranked team is favored by two buckets, its completely bonkers that the line went up a half a point on some books. This should be a close game, but any basketball player knows that even the closest games end up at 5-7 point margins because of fouls. To me, I think vandy wins here. They are the much more tested team, they have played decent competition so far in Oregon St, Cleveland St, and NC St. Bucknell is not terrible either, certainly should have beat them by more, but this team has played its share of early competition and Xavier has only played 2 games that were even available to be wagered on. Xavier is very talented, but they will lose to Vandy tonight on the road.
2011-2012
-----
157-143-9 OVERALL
63-50-4 NFL
79-83-4 NCAA FOOTBALL
15-10-1 NCAA BASKETBALL
Sunday, November 27, 2011
philly +3.5
------
eagles need this football game. They are missing 2 corners,their qb, i get all that. but they are still a nightmare for the paper tiger patriots. they are fast on d. they have an excellent pass rush, and they have an incredible running back.
Chicago+3
---
hanie is a decent qb, and i think the raiders offensive injuries will really show up this week.
jets -3 tease tampa +9
-----
easy pickens
------
eagles need this football game. They are missing 2 corners,their qb, i get all that. but they are still a nightmare for the paper tiger patriots. they are fast on d. they have an excellent pass rush, and they have an incredible running back.
Chicago+3
---
hanie is a decent qb, and i think the raiders offensive injuries will really show up this week.
jets -3 tease tampa +9
-----
easy pickens
sunday card
sunday card
---------
colts +3 v caro
----
colts win on the field.
caro top pass rusher is out.
third home game in a row for colts.
carolina lost momentum in sec. half v detroit, may lull.
over 40 cardinals v stl
----
everyone and their mother sees an under play here bc the cardinals have a rookie backup in
for kolb. This kid is not that terrible, his only win was vs sTL and he should play with confidence.
on the converse, STL is looking for a bounceback game and I think they will move the ball on
zona. zona has a strong situational d, but they let up a ton of points mid season to some of
the better teams in the league. tomorrow, they play their 3rd road game in a row against
sam bradford who has had a god awful season. two qbs looking to prove themselves, two teams
out of contention, and arizona is tired. plus, both teams have hit under 3 times in a row.
under 37.5 cleveland v cinn
---
cinn needs to tighten up on d after last week. cleveland cannot win without playing conservative
football. cleveland is simply an under team, they have hit a lot of unders and this is actually
a high number for them.
"Cleveland defense that’s giving up a league-low 166.5 passing yards per game
and is fifth with an average of 305.8 total yards allowed."
"The Browns scored two touchdowns for the first time in five weeks and held the Jaguars
at the 1-yard line over the game’s final two plays."
under 41. chi v oak
-----
oakland will make chicago play conservative in haney's first game this year. chicago's d
will show up v oaklands run game and force long third downs.
wash+3
----
seattle will have to pass on washington to beat them, and they wont even try. jackson still
banged up, rice dnp a few practices this week as well. washington needs a win grossman will
be able to throw on seattle if they can throw short.
seattle is a bully team, but they will have trouble against shanahan's squad.
chargers v denver under 42
---
these 2 teams combined for over 50 points earlier this year and now we have a sinking line
which has landed at forty two. the reason the under is the play here is that denver will
obviously employ their normal 3 yards and a cloud of dust playbook, while san diego struggles
with 2 starting offensive linemen out. denver's pass rush will cause backs and tight ends
to stay in and help block, this will cause rivers to have less options, and with
an already timid mindstate, he will get sacked 2 or more times.
2011-2012
-----
151-136-9 OVERALL
57-43-4 NFL
79-83-4 NCAA FOOTBALL
15-10-1 NCAA BASKETBALL
---------
colts +3 v caro
----
colts win on the field.
caro top pass rusher is out.
third home game in a row for colts.
carolina lost momentum in sec. half v detroit, may lull.
over 40 cardinals v stl
----
everyone and their mother sees an under play here bc the cardinals have a rookie backup in
for kolb. This kid is not that terrible, his only win was vs sTL and he should play with confidence.
on the converse, STL is looking for a bounceback game and I think they will move the ball on
zona. zona has a strong situational d, but they let up a ton of points mid season to some of
the better teams in the league. tomorrow, they play their 3rd road game in a row against
sam bradford who has had a god awful season. two qbs looking to prove themselves, two teams
out of contention, and arizona is tired. plus, both teams have hit under 3 times in a row.
under 37.5 cleveland v cinn
---
cinn needs to tighten up on d after last week. cleveland cannot win without playing conservative
football. cleveland is simply an under team, they have hit a lot of unders and this is actually
a high number for them.
"Cleveland defense that’s giving up a league-low 166.5 passing yards per game
and is fifth with an average of 305.8 total yards allowed."
"The Browns scored two touchdowns for the first time in five weeks and held the Jaguars
at the 1-yard line over the game’s final two plays."
under 41. chi v oak
-----
oakland will make chicago play conservative in haney's first game this year. chicago's d
will show up v oaklands run game and force long third downs.
wash+3
----
seattle will have to pass on washington to beat them, and they wont even try. jackson still
banged up, rice dnp a few practices this week as well. washington needs a win grossman will
be able to throw on seattle if they can throw short.
seattle is a bully team, but they will have trouble against shanahan's squad.
chargers v denver under 42
---
these 2 teams combined for over 50 points earlier this year and now we have a sinking line
which has landed at forty two. the reason the under is the play here is that denver will
obviously employ their normal 3 yards and a cloud of dust playbook, while san diego struggles
with 2 starting offensive linemen out. denver's pass rush will cause backs and tight ends
to stay in and help block, this will cause rivers to have less options, and with
an already timid mindstate, he will get sacked 2 or more times.
2011-2012
-----
151-136-9 OVERALL
57-43-4 NFL
79-83-4 NCAA FOOTBALL
15-10-1 NCAA BASKETBALL
Saturday, November 26, 2011
Friday, November 25, 2011
Thursday, November 24, 2011
Wednesday, November 23, 2011
Syracuse -10 Vs V. Tech
----
First of all, there is no height on the v. Tech team. Their tallest player is 6'9 and they will need some interior presence if they are going to win tonight.
Secondly, we all know Syracuse forces teams to shoot, well the two top scorers for v tech are guards, so it may perhaps lead you to think that these guys can shoot, and maybe they can ... but last years stats show Erick Green with a 3 point percentage of 24.8 for the season last year and just over 40% from the field. Hudson, the top scorer so far this season, shot 22.2% from 3 last year and also just over 40% from the field. 6'8 davila will have to really contribute to this game to even make a contest of this mismatch. The orangemen have a very balanced attack and I think they will be able to score not only in the paint but from the arch. tHis could get ugly in NYC
----
First of all, there is no height on the v. Tech team. Their tallest player is 6'9 and they will need some interior presence if they are going to win tonight.
Secondly, we all know Syracuse forces teams to shoot, well the two top scorers for v tech are guards, so it may perhaps lead you to think that these guys can shoot, and maybe they can ... but last years stats show Erick Green with a 3 point percentage of 24.8 for the season last year and just over 40% from the field. Hudson, the top scorer so far this season, shot 22.2% from 3 last year and also just over 40% from the field. 6'8 davila will have to really contribute to this game to even make a contest of this mismatch. The orangemen have a very balanced attack and I think they will be able to score not only in the paint but from the arch. tHis could get ugly in NYC
Kansas V Duke
-----
Lets get one thing straight. These are both very good teams.
You will see both of these teams deep (Sweet 16) into the Tournament come march. So I dont want to hear any more about the "worst" duke team or "worst Kansas team" in years, cuz thats nonsense.
One thing for sure, is with an over under of 148 and counting, We know both teams can score for sure. Duke definitely can score from the outside and can also post up. They have good interior passing and rotate well on defense, but they arent quite in the right spots on the floor yet this year. Lets not forget, a team that can score that quick and that often, will also give up extra points to their opponents just simply due to the pace of play they establish. Now, duke definitely needs some work on D, and I think that Kansas will get them in foul trouble because of their poor positioning on their rotations and the lack of toughness they possess down low. Kansas in the converse, will not be able to stop the blue devils down low, or on the break, and I expect many a foul on both sides of the ball here. If Kansas can put up 65 on Kentucky, then I think in a championship game of a solid tournament, you will see a whole bunch of points here, and foul shots by the way. if michigan can put up 75 on you in garbage time, shooting a terrible percentage, then I think its safe to say we will have a good 75 point by kansas 2night. I think that Duke is going down, this line is too short and has the whole world on Duke, just like they want.
Im shootin for the moon on this one.
Kansas +5 and OVER 148
Kansas is going to keep this close, very very close. Im hoping for overtime.
-----
Lets get one thing straight. These are both very good teams.
You will see both of these teams deep (Sweet 16) into the Tournament come march. So I dont want to hear any more about the "worst" duke team or "worst Kansas team" in years, cuz thats nonsense.
One thing for sure, is with an over under of 148 and counting, We know both teams can score for sure. Duke definitely can score from the outside and can also post up. They have good interior passing and rotate well on defense, but they arent quite in the right spots on the floor yet this year. Lets not forget, a team that can score that quick and that often, will also give up extra points to their opponents just simply due to the pace of play they establish. Now, duke definitely needs some work on D, and I think that Kansas will get them in foul trouble because of their poor positioning on their rotations and the lack of toughness they possess down low. Kansas in the converse, will not be able to stop the blue devils down low, or on the break, and I expect many a foul on both sides of the ball here. If Kansas can put up 65 on Kentucky, then I think in a championship game of a solid tournament, you will see a whole bunch of points here, and foul shots by the way. if michigan can put up 75 on you in garbage time, shooting a terrible percentage, then I think its safe to say we will have a good 75 point by kansas 2night. I think that Duke is going down, this line is too short and has the whole world on Duke, just like they want.
Im shootin for the moon on this one.
Kansas +5 and OVER 148
Kansas is going to keep this close, very very close. Im hoping for overtime.
Today's Action in Basketball
Under 127 UCLA V MICHIGAN
------
Michigan is really a much better team here, but rather than bet the side I will take the under because
a.) neither of these teams is very good at shooting
b.) They are both tired in their third game of this tournament, and I have a feeling this young michigan team will be a bit disinterested in a consolation game.
c.)line movement
2011-2012
-----
141-119-9 OVERALL
55-41-4 NFL
73-73-4 NCAA FOOTBALL
13-5-1 NCAA BASKETBALL
Under 127 UCLA V MICHIGAN
------
Michigan is really a much better team here, but rather than bet the side I will take the under because
a.) neither of these teams is very good at shooting
b.) They are both tired in their third game of this tournament, and I have a feeling this young michigan team will be a bit disinterested in a consolation game.
c.)line movement
2011-2012
-----
141-119-9 OVERALL
55-41-4 NFL
73-73-4 NCAA FOOTBALL
13-5-1 NCAA BASKETBALL
Tuesday, November 22, 2011
late game
UnLV -15 V Cal Poly
----
Cal poly can play d, I will give them that, but there is a reason why this line is so big. Unlv plays very well at home and can put up buckets while the opposite is true of poly, they really cant score, even on shit teams like USC they won 42-36 in what probably looked like a girls jv high school game.
This might get ugly.
----
Cal poly can play d, I will give them that, but there is a reason why this line is so big. Unlv plays very well at home and can put up buckets while the opposite is true of poly, they really cant score, even on shit teams like USC they won 42-36 in what probably looked like a girls jv high school game.
This might get ugly.
Chaminade + 22
-----
Over 56.5 Miami Ohio V Ohio
-----
Neither of these teams play D in the first place. But the problem tonight is Ohio's lack of a pass rush combined with some rain and two good quarterbacks, this is an over all day long boys and girls. plus you gotta love the 3 point line move to encourage you that youre on the right side.
2011-2012
-----
138-116-9 OVERALL
55-41-4 NFL
73-71-4 NCAA FOOTBALL
10-4-1 NCAA BASKETBALL
-----
Over 56.5 Miami Ohio V Ohio
-----
Neither of these teams play D in the first place. But the problem tonight is Ohio's lack of a pass rush combined with some rain and two good quarterbacks, this is an over all day long boys and girls. plus you gotta love the 3 point line move to encourage you that youre on the right side.
2011-2012
-----
138-116-9 OVERALL
55-41-4 NFL
73-71-4 NCAA FOOTBALL
10-4-1 NCAA BASKETBALL
Monday, November 21, 2011
2011-2012
-----
137-116-9 OVERALL
55-41-4 NFL
73-71-4 NCAA FOOTBALL
9-4-1 NCAA BASKETBALL
Today's Basketball
Mich +4.5 V Memphis
-----
Michigan will play too much D for memphis, this game is looking like its going to be a dog fight and Memphis has only played one game against a belmont team that plays more like the 2008 phoenix suns than they do like a college basketball team. Michigan should take this game on the floor, more experience, more athleticism and a more concrete approach to the game.
-----
137-116-9 OVERALL
55-41-4 NFL
73-71-4 NCAA FOOTBALL
9-4-1 NCAA BASKETBALL
Today's Basketball
Mich +4.5 V Memphis
-----
Michigan will play too much D for memphis, this game is looking like its going to be a dog fight and Memphis has only played one game against a belmont team that plays more like the 2008 phoenix suns than they do like a college basketball team. Michigan should take this game on the floor, more experience, more athleticism and a more concrete approach to the game.
Sunday, November 20, 2011
make that 2 shots...of patron
Under 45.5 Eagles game
----
I think the eagles D is going to be tough for the slow methodical Giants offense. I am a big giants fan this season, but between these two teams and their collective injuries, I think we have a decent shot at the under here. fuck it.
----
I think the eagles D is going to be tough for the slow methodical Giants offense. I am a big giants fan this season, but between these two teams and their collective injuries, I think we have a decent shot at the under here. fuck it.
Taking a shot folks.
Eagles +6
----
I have always been a big vince young fan, and I personally think Vick's off field distractions are what is keeping the eagles from being the team they need to be. Lets see a BIG WIN from the eagles here as they will play the hardest of any team you have seen this season.
----
I have always been a big vince young fan, and I personally think Vick's off field distractions are what is keeping the eagles from being the team they need to be. Lets see a BIG WIN from the eagles here as they will play the hardest of any team you have seen this season.
Late games
Chicago V San Diego Under 45
-----
I think this is going to be a slower game for the chargers who really do not know what they are in for against the Bears. Conversely, the Chargers secondary has a lot to prove and I think they come out amped up to play against cutler who takes a lot of risks.
San Diego +4.5
-------
This is a lot of points to be laying in a game that is capped at 45
-----
I think this is going to be a slower game for the chargers who really do not know what they are in for against the Bears. Conversely, the Chargers secondary has a lot to prove and I think they come out amped up to play against cutler who takes a lot of risks.
San Diego +4.5
-------
This is a lot of points to be laying in a game that is capped at 45
Tonights basketball
Tonight during the sunday night football game, I, the basketball guy, will probably be one of the only people flipping back and forth to tonights Puerto Rico Invitational Finals matchup between
Purdue +2.5 v ALABAMA
-----
I like alabama, I really do, but the thing with them is they let teams hang around, and really they dominate teams with their athleticism. I agree that they are strong on defense, and I also agree that they are an excellent passing team, but I think that they will meet their demise tonight against a team that can score a lot of points. Purdue boasts a lineup full of triple threat players, who may not match up athletically with bama, but who I trust more with my money because of their experience and decision making. Lets not forget, all this hype about Hummell, its really not hype. If this kid can stay healthy he presents a huge matchup problem for many teams, Bama being one of them. If Bama plays man tonight, hummell will either take their 4 Man out of the paint, which will cause more open lanes, and less weak side defensive help from Bama's athletic front court. Or Bama will put an undersized player on him, and although it might work for a bit, that will prove to be a poor strategy because he will shoot over a 3 guard, and probably get him in foul trouble.
Bama's Green is a hell of a player and he is literally all over the court. This guy loves to get his own board and run up the court with the rock. Unfortunately that is not going to be as easy tonight against a boilermaker team that is very likely to hit 50% of its shots or more.
Bama goes down tonight against a better team, a team that has played tougher competition thus far.
Purdue +2.5 v ALABAMA
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I like alabama, I really do, but the thing with them is they let teams hang around, and really they dominate teams with their athleticism. I agree that they are strong on defense, and I also agree that they are an excellent passing team, but I think that they will meet their demise tonight against a team that can score a lot of points. Purdue boasts a lineup full of triple threat players, who may not match up athletically with bama, but who I trust more with my money because of their experience and decision making. Lets not forget, all this hype about Hummell, its really not hype. If this kid can stay healthy he presents a huge matchup problem for many teams, Bama being one of them. If Bama plays man tonight, hummell will either take their 4 Man out of the paint, which will cause more open lanes, and less weak side defensive help from Bama's athletic front court. Or Bama will put an undersized player on him, and although it might work for a bit, that will prove to be a poor strategy because he will shoot over a 3 guard, and probably get him in foul trouble.
Bama's Green is a hell of a player and he is literally all over the court. This guy loves to get his own board and run up the court with the rock. Unfortunately that is not going to be as easy tonight against a boilermaker team that is very likely to hit 50% of its shots or more.
Bama goes down tonight against a better team, a team that has played tougher competition thus far.
Second half
Under 24 Green Bay Second half
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a lot of bullshit happened first half and it only went over by a touchdown. I think this half green bay looks to get out of the building without running into blount too many more times, and without rodgers getting popped. Tampa's coach is an idiot for that "surprise" onside kick. Real surprise dummy.
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a lot of bullshit happened first half and it only went over by a touchdown. I think this half green bay looks to get out of the building without running into blount too many more times, and without rodgers getting popped. Tampa's coach is an idiot for that "surprise" onside kick. Real surprise dummy.
Today's NFL
Carolina +7
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think this is a play that I would really like to make, but my gambling instincts will not allow me to proceed. I have a very very strong lean on Detroit. They will be able to move the ball on carolina's pass D, but the problem is that all the teams that have let carolina hang around are pass heavy teams. Those that smoke carolina are run based or have a very strong run threat. look at these losses (ATLANTA 31 -17 & Tennessee 30-3) in comparison to the scores in (New Orleans 30-27 - Green Bay 30-23-Chicago 34-29) It seems that teams who do not possess the ball well in the running game are also those who struggle with carolina's athleticism and youthful energy. Carolina plays very loose and I think they will have ZERO fear against the lions on the road today. Carolina got their ass kicked last week, but it was simply a bad matchup for them. They will bounce back and certainly take advantage of the fact that Detroit is looking ahead to their thanksgiving day showdown. can you spell TRAP game?
Under 48 Green BaY Vs Tampa Bay
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I am going with the same theory that got me a loss on monday night. I think the packers are way too versatile on offense for Tampa to get into a shootout, and will have to possess the ball against Green Bay. I do understand that Tampa has been throwing the ball 35+ times a game, and with good reason as they have a very solid receiving corps. But there has been a lot of heat on the Tampa coaching staff for their play calling, and I think this game is a very good one to start running the ball and possessing it. Also Green Bay, like many of the teams that are at the bottom of the Pass yardage allowed barrel, has a ton of interceptions (17) and although I believe Tampa will have success in passing the ball today, they will have to be conservative and play possession football. Lets also not forget that Freeman still has an injured thumb, which hurts long throws more than anything, so there are many reasons to think Tampa will want to slow the game down. I also think the Bucs are the best team that Green Bay has played in a month (STL, MIN, San Diego) and that TAMPA will keep it close for a half or so. The packers have gone over at a rate of 6-3 this year, and their last 3 games have gone over. Over is 5-4 in Tampa games, and 3 of their last 4 have gone under, but I do not believe they are the focal point of the betting on this game, people will predicate their breakdowns on Green Bay. Tampa will look to take the crowd out of the game and take the air out of the ball in a WEST COAST offense fashion, and they may get blown out doing so, but I dont see 50 points today.
Minnesota -2
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This is a bad mismatch for Oakland. Oakland has had trouble with the pass rush all season and the vikings apply a ton of pressure, which will help keep Palmer uncomfortable in the pocket.
Also, the minnesota rush D is very solid, and has been all season, and although Oakland has had 10 days to prepare, I think that Bush will be shut down. conversely I believe that AP will not be stopped, especially with Ponder's ability to throw the football, and the lack of a Pass Rush the raiders have shown this season. These teams are evenly matched on paper, but in actuality this is not the team oakland wants to play. Lets not forget that Minnesota is a tough young team, and that they will most definitely bounce back from the ass whippin they took on monday night, just as they have all season.
Tennessee +6.5
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Both teams are coming off of good games against decent competition, but the falcons are really coming off of a bunch of games against teams who cannot, and DO NOT run the football. Tennessee does not have the stats to back it up, but take a few guys out of the box against the Titans and see what happens with Chris Johnson. I honestly feel that the Falcons will have a let down this week, they played so well last week, especially in the fourth quarter, coming back from a 10 point deficit with 5 mins left and tying the game, only for their coach (who has been questionable all year in my eyes) to screw it up on a bonehead fourth down play in his own end in overtime. Mike Smith literally handed the game away last week, and although many talking heads think this is a chance for the falcons to come back strong, I honestly have a hard time believing they will win, nevermind by a touchdown. Atlanta may win this game in 24-20 fashion, but I expect them to lose on the field. Either way I think the sharp play here is Tennessee.
4-3 in COLLEGE F
1-1 in BBALL yesterday
2011-2012
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134-109-9 OVERALL
52-35-4 NFL
73-71-4 NCAA FOOTBALL
9-3-1 NCAA BASKETBALL
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think this is a play that I would really like to make, but my gambling instincts will not allow me to proceed. I have a very very strong lean on Detroit. They will be able to move the ball on carolina's pass D, but the problem is that all the teams that have let carolina hang around are pass heavy teams. Those that smoke carolina are run based or have a very strong run threat. look at these losses (ATLANTA 31 -17 & Tennessee 30-3) in comparison to the scores in (New Orleans 30-27 - Green Bay 30-23-Chicago 34-29) It seems that teams who do not possess the ball well in the running game are also those who struggle with carolina's athleticism and youthful energy. Carolina plays very loose and I think they will have ZERO fear against the lions on the road today. Carolina got their ass kicked last week, but it was simply a bad matchup for them. They will bounce back and certainly take advantage of the fact that Detroit is looking ahead to their thanksgiving day showdown. can you spell TRAP game?
Under 48 Green BaY Vs Tampa Bay
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I am going with the same theory that got me a loss on monday night. I think the packers are way too versatile on offense for Tampa to get into a shootout, and will have to possess the ball against Green Bay. I do understand that Tampa has been throwing the ball 35+ times a game, and with good reason as they have a very solid receiving corps. But there has been a lot of heat on the Tampa coaching staff for their play calling, and I think this game is a very good one to start running the ball and possessing it. Also Green Bay, like many of the teams that are at the bottom of the Pass yardage allowed barrel, has a ton of interceptions (17) and although I believe Tampa will have success in passing the ball today, they will have to be conservative and play possession football. Lets also not forget that Freeman still has an injured thumb, which hurts long throws more than anything, so there are many reasons to think Tampa will want to slow the game down. I also think the Bucs are the best team that Green Bay has played in a month (STL, MIN, San Diego) and that TAMPA will keep it close for a half or so. The packers have gone over at a rate of 6-3 this year, and their last 3 games have gone over. Over is 5-4 in Tampa games, and 3 of their last 4 have gone under, but I do not believe they are the focal point of the betting on this game, people will predicate their breakdowns on Green Bay. Tampa will look to take the crowd out of the game and take the air out of the ball in a WEST COAST offense fashion, and they may get blown out doing so, but I dont see 50 points today.
Minnesota -2
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This is a bad mismatch for Oakland. Oakland has had trouble with the pass rush all season and the vikings apply a ton of pressure, which will help keep Palmer uncomfortable in the pocket.
Also, the minnesota rush D is very solid, and has been all season, and although Oakland has had 10 days to prepare, I think that Bush will be shut down. conversely I believe that AP will not be stopped, especially with Ponder's ability to throw the football, and the lack of a Pass Rush the raiders have shown this season. These teams are evenly matched on paper, but in actuality this is not the team oakland wants to play. Lets not forget that Minnesota is a tough young team, and that they will most definitely bounce back from the ass whippin they took on monday night, just as they have all season.
Tennessee +6.5
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Both teams are coming off of good games against decent competition, but the falcons are really coming off of a bunch of games against teams who cannot, and DO NOT run the football. Tennessee does not have the stats to back it up, but take a few guys out of the box against the Titans and see what happens with Chris Johnson. I honestly feel that the Falcons will have a let down this week, they played so well last week, especially in the fourth quarter, coming back from a 10 point deficit with 5 mins left and tying the game, only for their coach (who has been questionable all year in my eyes) to screw it up on a bonehead fourth down play in his own end in overtime. Mike Smith literally handed the game away last week, and although many talking heads think this is a chance for the falcons to come back strong, I honestly have a hard time believing they will win, nevermind by a touchdown. Atlanta may win this game in 24-20 fashion, but I expect them to lose on the field. Either way I think the sharp play here is Tennessee.
4-3 in COLLEGE F
1-1 in BBALL yesterday
2011-2012
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134-109-9 OVERALL
52-35-4 NFL
73-71-4 NCAA FOOTBALL
9-3-1 NCAA BASKETBALL
Saturday, November 19, 2011
San Diego St. -3 v Long Beach State U
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Long beach has a few things in their favor. They are very tough mentally, they have a great backcourt, they have an experienced veteran team, they have a ton of momentum from their win the other night against #9 Pitt on their home floor and they know San Diego St very well.
Unfortunately for them , this is a bad matchup for Long Beach.
They are playing a team that can defend very well, they are quick, and most importantly they are a very good match up for LBSU. San Diego State has only lost to Baylor, who is clearly the best team either of these squads has seen thus far. State hung in their with Baylor but fell behind in the second half due to a lack of depth in size, and even more so due to the fact that they had played 3 games prior to the Baylor game. SDSU has completely taken the rust off and are now performing like the team most expect them to be, a team looking for a 8-14 seed in the tournament. Long Beach has only played 2 games so far this season, and they will not be successful tonight against San Diego.
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Long beach has a few things in their favor. They are very tough mentally, they have a great backcourt, they have an experienced veteran team, they have a ton of momentum from their win the other night against #9 Pitt on their home floor and they know San Diego St very well.
Unfortunately for them , this is a bad matchup for Long Beach.
They are playing a team that can defend very well, they are quick, and most importantly they are a very good match up for LBSU. San Diego State has only lost to Baylor, who is clearly the best team either of these squads has seen thus far. State hung in their with Baylor but fell behind in the second half due to a lack of depth in size, and even more so due to the fact that they had played 3 games prior to the Baylor game. SDSU has completely taken the rust off and are now performing like the team most expect them to be, a team looking for a 8-14 seed in the tournament. Long Beach has only played 2 games so far this season, and they will not be successful tonight against San Diego.
BUTLER +4 V Louisville
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So this is how I see this one breaking down. Louisville is without Siva, and they will do their best to keep this game uneventful, disinteresting, and slow, in order to keep the raucous Butler crowd out of the game, and also to use their deep bench and incredible Defense to their advantage. they are a better shooting team than butler, and if they can get some stops they may be able to stretch the floor by having guards get to the corners in transition. however, I see an opposing, and more promising strategy on the Butler side of the ball.
Butler's best player this year is going to be Senior Center Andrew Smith, a very solid 6-11 post player who has been with the team during its two excellent runs, and who has been waiting his turn patiently. Aside from Smith, Butler is not incredibly Deep in the post. What I foresee is the Bulldogs spreading the floor in the half court to allow an open post up area, and good cutting room through the lane. Which in turn, will allow open shots for the experienced Butler back court.
This will be a problem for Louisville because their best matchup for Smith is 6-10 Gorgui Dieng, who is an incredible athlete, but who has constant problems with foul trouble and court discipline. I am sure the kid will improve with such stellar coaching, but Game 3, on the road, against a very well coached big man, is not the position you want this guy in. Siva is out, so the double team will not come as fast or be as effective, and the only other options that Pitino has are a Freshman in 6'10 Zach Price, who has shown some promise against sub par talent, or undersized 6'7 250 pound Chane Behanan.
Behanan will definitely see some time against Smith in the post, but he is also Louisville's best scorer down low, and with so little depth Pitino really cant afford to have him get into foul trouble. He also being 3 inches shorter and not very long, will put him at a disadvantage for sure. If louisville plays a zone, they will be in even more trouble as Butler will eat their zone for a late 2:00pm luncheon.
I really like Butler in this one, it seems like the easy pick, and we all know how I feel about sucker plays, but I just do not see how Louisville wins this game without their best player.
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So this is how I see this one breaking down. Louisville is without Siva, and they will do their best to keep this game uneventful, disinteresting, and slow, in order to keep the raucous Butler crowd out of the game, and also to use their deep bench and incredible Defense to their advantage. they are a better shooting team than butler, and if they can get some stops they may be able to stretch the floor by having guards get to the corners in transition. however, I see an opposing, and more promising strategy on the Butler side of the ball.
Butler's best player this year is going to be Senior Center Andrew Smith, a very solid 6-11 post player who has been with the team during its two excellent runs, and who has been waiting his turn patiently. Aside from Smith, Butler is not incredibly Deep in the post. What I foresee is the Bulldogs spreading the floor in the half court to allow an open post up area, and good cutting room through the lane. Which in turn, will allow open shots for the experienced Butler back court.
This will be a problem for Louisville because their best matchup for Smith is 6-10 Gorgui Dieng, who is an incredible athlete, but who has constant problems with foul trouble and court discipline. I am sure the kid will improve with such stellar coaching, but Game 3, on the road, against a very well coached big man, is not the position you want this guy in. Siva is out, so the double team will not come as fast or be as effective, and the only other options that Pitino has are a Freshman in 6'10 Zach Price, who has shown some promise against sub par talent, or undersized 6'7 250 pound Chane Behanan.
Behanan will definitely see some time against Smith in the post, but he is also Louisville's best scorer down low, and with so little depth Pitino really cant afford to have him get into foul trouble. He also being 3 inches shorter and not very long, will put him at a disadvantage for sure. If louisville plays a zone, they will be in even more trouble as Butler will eat their zone for a late 2:00pm luncheon.
I really like Butler in this one, it seems like the easy pick, and we all know how I feel about sucker plays, but I just do not see how Louisville wins this game without their best player.
2011-2012
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129-105-9 OVERALL
52-35-4 NFL
69-68-4 NCAA FOOTBALL
8-2-1 NCAA BASKETBALL
Today's College Football
12:00 pm
Mich -3.5
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Michigan is the better team here. Nebraska is one dimensional and I do not believe they will be fast enough to contain the speed on Michigan's offense.
Rutgers +1
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Rutgers is a tougher team than most people anticipate.
UCONN -2.5
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UCONN can become bowl eligible with this win, expect a tough home crowd in a very cold environment. Nothing is certain in the big east.
3:30
Penn St +6.5
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Penn State needs to show some pride and bring their University a win.
SMU +20
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Time for Houston to disappoint. They are playin a very tough, very determined SMU team whose stock is going way way up!
Late games
TEXAS -7.5
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Fuck K State. They play absolutely NO D. This game is going to be an ass kickin.
Tennesee +1
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In state rivalry and the line is extremely short for an entire country to be so hot on Vanderbilt. Vandy is good, and this is a tough pick, but Tennessee is a determined team that can still make a bowl game. Lets not forget the impeccable competition they have played in the last 6 weeks of SEC competition and I think that this will be a nice home win for the VOLS
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129-105-9 OVERALL
52-35-4 NFL
69-68-4 NCAA FOOTBALL
8-2-1 NCAA BASKETBALL
Today's College Football
12:00 pm
Mich -3.5
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Michigan is the better team here. Nebraska is one dimensional and I do not believe they will be fast enough to contain the speed on Michigan's offense.
Rutgers +1
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Rutgers is a tougher team than most people anticipate.
UCONN -2.5
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UCONN can become bowl eligible with this win, expect a tough home crowd in a very cold environment. Nothing is certain in the big east.
3:30
Penn St +6.5
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Penn State needs to show some pride and bring their University a win.
SMU +20
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Time for Houston to disappoint. They are playin a very tough, very determined SMU team whose stock is going way way up!
Late games
TEXAS -7.5
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Fuck K State. They play absolutely NO D. This game is going to be an ass kickin.
Tennesee +1
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In state rivalry and the line is extremely short for an entire country to be so hot on Vanderbilt. Vandy is good, and this is a tough pick, but Tennessee is a determined team that can still make a bowl game. Lets not forget the impeccable competition they have played in the last 6 weeks of SEC competition and I think that this will be a nice home win for the VOLS
Friday, November 18, 2011
Tonights football
C Mich +15 V Toledo
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I know C Michigan has had a very bad year, as a matter of fact they have only covered 1 spread all season. The reason for this is that central mich was expected to be a lot better than they turned out to be this year. However, they really are not that bad of a team, and have kept it close with many decent teams this year. C mich kept it within 2 scores of NC State, Beat NIU on the field, lost by 4 to ball st, and kept it close with kentucky until finally losing by 14. I think the bottom line is we all know Toledo can score 50, but the question is will they let up 57 in the process?
This is the last game of the year for C Mich, and for these seniors, the last game of their life. I just dont see them getting shalacked at home by more than 2 tds, especially against a team they know so well.
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I know C Michigan has had a very bad year, as a matter of fact they have only covered 1 spread all season. The reason for this is that central mich was expected to be a lot better than they turned out to be this year. However, they really are not that bad of a team, and have kept it close with many decent teams this year. C mich kept it within 2 scores of NC State, Beat NIU on the field, lost by 4 to ball st, and kept it close with kentucky until finally losing by 14. I think the bottom line is we all know Toledo can score 50, but the question is will they let up 57 in the process?
This is the last game of the year for C Mich, and for these seniors, the last game of their life. I just dont see them getting shalacked at home by more than 2 tds, especially against a team they know so well.
2011-2012
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129-103-9 OVERALL
52-35-4 NFL
69-67-4 NCAA FOOTBALL
8-1-1 NCAA BASKETBALL
Tonights play
Wichita State +2 V Alabama
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Not only do I think Wichita State is extremely undervalued as an overall team, I think that they play a stark contrast to the way Maryland plays basketball. They shoot the ball well from beyond the arch, they have a 7 footer, and they have a mental edge having defeated alabama last year in the NIT final. I understand the whole REVENGE angle, but to me that makes no sense here because if this team, which is supposedly better than last year's squad, is exacting its revenge, then why is the line 2 or less some places. This game is as fishy as it gets and I think the sharp play is certainly Wich ST.
Alabama is not a good shooting team from beyond the arch, they normally play match up zone on D, and I think they will be over aggressive in their attempt to use their strength against this team that they lost to in the NIT final.
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129-103-9 OVERALL
52-35-4 NFL
69-67-4 NCAA FOOTBALL
8-1-1 NCAA BASKETBALL
Tonights play
Wichita State +2 V Alabama
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Not only do I think Wichita State is extremely undervalued as an overall team, I think that they play a stark contrast to the way Maryland plays basketball. They shoot the ball well from beyond the arch, they have a 7 footer, and they have a mental edge having defeated alabama last year in the NIT final. I understand the whole REVENGE angle, but to me that makes no sense here because if this team, which is supposedly better than last year's squad, is exacting its revenge, then why is the line 2 or less some places. This game is as fishy as it gets and I think the sharp play is certainly Wich ST.
Alabama is not a good shooting team from beyond the arch, they normally play match up zone on D, and I think they will be over aggressive in their attempt to use their strength against this team that they lost to in the NIT final.
Thursday, November 17, 2011
College foots and baskets
Alabama v Maryland
Under 128
Under 128
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I would write a long winded explanation, but I honestly dont have time today. All I can say is this, Maryland knows they are no where near as talented, deep, or athletic as BAMA, and one of two things in my eyes will happen.
They will get blown out... which means that they quit early in the second half and wont score much.
OR
They will keep it close like the oddsmakers have purported, which means they HAVE to use the shot clock, take high quality shots, and get offensive rebounds.
neither team is incredible from down town... so lets roll with it.
ALSO
NORTH CAROLINA +10 V V TECH
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Not a huge hokies fan myself, but this game honestly comes down to recent competition. Tech has played the bottom of the barrel recently with wins over DUKE and BOSTON COLLEGE, as well as wins over 1 dimensional G Tech, and a decent Wake Forest squad.
They really havent played too many above average teams all year, and its very likely they take this North Carolina squad lightly. Carolina is coming off of a couple tough losses, and I expect this to be a bounce back game for them. They put up 0 points against rival NC STATE and to be honest I cant see them putting up less than 21 tonight against tech.
ALSO
NORTH CAROLINA +10 V V TECH
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Not a huge hokies fan myself, but this game honestly comes down to recent competition. Tech has played the bottom of the barrel recently with wins over DUKE and BOSTON COLLEGE, as well as wins over 1 dimensional G Tech, and a decent Wake Forest squad.
They really havent played too many above average teams all year, and its very likely they take this North Carolina squad lightly. Carolina is coming off of a couple tough losses, and I expect this to be a bounce back game for them. They put up 0 points against rival NC STATE and to be honest I cant see them putting up less than 21 tonight against tech.
2011-2012
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126-103-9 OVERALL
51-35-4 NFL
68-67-4 NCAA FOOTBALL
7-1-1 NCAA BASKETBALL
Under 41 Denver V NYJ
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The amount of points these two teams put up should say OVER OVER OVER to the average bettor. But like betting many team sports (really ALL team sports) you have to look at the MATCHUP. This matchup is going to yield very few points. Jets D got TORCHED the other day, granted it was by TOM BRADY, but the bottom line is they are going to play very tight defense in this game tonight and I believe there will be 7 to 8 in the box all night long. Tebow may very well have success against the Jets just because he is versatile enough to surprise them, and also because the Jets will be playing a bit outside of their comfort zone, but all in all this game Spells UNDER!!! both burress and holmes have been banged up for weeks and they have only been able to Rest 3 days (maybe less considering Travel time across the country) and I dont see a lot of points being put up here. Jets have activated another young running back to help out greene because they KNOW they have to run tonight and Tomlinson is OUT, which by the way also hurts their short passing game and may lead to more dropped passes by Greene and his backups, more sacks because tomlinson is the best blocker on their RB corps and more throw aways. expect some option, some jump pass, and some ELECTRICITY in DENVER tonight. Denver has covered 0 games at home, and they HAVE to be due at some point to perform for their home crowd. the Jets meanwhile have not proven themselves on the road and although its a short week for both teams, Jets lose a day in travel, and some extra time for having played the late game on sunday. Betting Denver is almost like hedging the under because maybe both teams fizzle out in the second half due to a lack of rest.
Wednesday, November 16, 2011
2 football plays
I wont give up on college football. I know I can cap this sport if I just figure out the correlation between my misread games, I really think I can dominate this sport just like I do others.
Tonight's action
This first one is a reach
Miami Ohio -1.5 V Western Mich
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Miami ohio definitely has the better defense, and I think anyone can score on western Michigan. normally i like to lay off if a team I like has covered many consecutive games like Miami Ohio, but the thing is that the general populous really thinks Western Michigan is incredible, so instead of looking at this game like a very short line for a home favorite, we really should be astonished as to why a team with a much better strength of schedule, and a better record, in the same conference, is not favored. I think the fact that this is miami's last home game, and the fact that they are one of the few MAC teams that play defense will really factor in. Miami wins this one by 6.
Bowling Green +7 V Ohio
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Ohio is good, especially for a mac team, but this game I HAVE to lay on Bowling green again. admittedly I am 0-2 on BG plays this season, but what I will say is this, despite how terribly they played last week, it truly was BG's turnovers and carelessness with the ball that shot them in the foot. I think that Ohio's D is TERRIBLE. BG is looking for a decent way to end a bad season and I am not convinced that they cant do it tonight. EVEN AKRON put up 20 on OHIO, they really suck on D, which pretty much means that 80-91% of the public on them is insanity no matter how you look at it. Ohio will have a top receiver out and we can expect BG to blitz a bit more than normal in order to try and cause a stir early in this game.
Tonight's action
This first one is a reach
Miami Ohio -1.5 V Western Mich
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Miami ohio definitely has the better defense, and I think anyone can score on western Michigan. normally i like to lay off if a team I like has covered many consecutive games like Miami Ohio, but the thing is that the general populous really thinks Western Michigan is incredible, so instead of looking at this game like a very short line for a home favorite, we really should be astonished as to why a team with a much better strength of schedule, and a better record, in the same conference, is not favored. I think the fact that this is miami's last home game, and the fact that they are one of the few MAC teams that play defense will really factor in. Miami wins this one by 6.
Bowling Green +7 V Ohio
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Ohio is good, especially for a mac team, but this game I HAVE to lay on Bowling green again. admittedly I am 0-2 on BG plays this season, but what I will say is this, despite how terribly they played last week, it truly was BG's turnovers and carelessness with the ball that shot them in the foot. I think that Ohio's D is TERRIBLE. BG is looking for a decent way to end a bad season and I am not convinced that they cant do it tonight. EVEN AKRON put up 20 on OHIO, they really suck on D, which pretty much means that 80-91% of the public on them is insanity no matter how you look at it. Ohio will have a top receiver out and we can expect BG to blitz a bit more than normal in order to try and cause a stir early in this game.
Tonights BBALL
Long Beach State +13.5 V Pittsburgh
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I had heard a lil rumor about how long beach state was going to win the big west, and granted, we are not talking about an incredible conference, but certainly decent basketball. So I went and looked into who the fuck long beach state really is and I came up with this play.
Pitt is a good team, and as long as they keep winning like they did last year, top recruits are going to keep them in the top 20-40 of college basketball, but with that being said they have a lot to work on. Despite having fell asleep at the wheel against rider, there is much more to the story tonight. Pitt has 10 Underclassmen on their roster. They are a very very talented team, but also a team that has work to do on their rotation, their lineups, and their leadership.
Long Beach is a team that is lead by two very strong seniors Casper Ware and Larry Anderson and these two do not lack experience in any way. Ware is likely going to have to match up with gibbs, and although I would be foolish to think that Ware is on the same talent level as his counterpart, i think the bottom line is this is a much bigger game for Ware and his Senior laden squad, than it is for a big name BIG EAST team whose just trying to get it together before the conference season (aka the real season) begins.
Long beach will need to drive to the basket and get pitt into foul trouble, as they know that they are not as talented or as deep as Pitt, especially on offense. So they must utilize their veterans in this big game, and to be honest there must be many people in their program and around the country who think this LBSU team is worth its salt.
They play a VERY tough non conference schedule, and that is obviously their Athletic Director's way of pushing his school for a tournament bid.
They play San Diego State, Louisville, Kansas, North Carolina and Xavier - all before Christmas.
Somebody thinks this team is decent.
This will also be Pitt's 3rd game in 6 days, and they do not play great defense as it is, so I think winning by 14 might be a bit of a stretch as long as LBSU plays good hard nosed basketball and keeps the turnovers to a minimum.
FINALLY, LBSU starts a pretty decent sized lineup with a front court that boast 6'6 6'7 6'8 and decent weight on the PF and C positions. Pitt is an undersized team this season and their starting Center Malcolm Gilbert may have a tough time catching the ball tonight as he injured his finger last game. Gilbert seems to be the key factor in their possible championship run this year, we will see if his play is as sharp as it needs to be tonight against a solid west coast team.
------------
I had heard a lil rumor about how long beach state was going to win the big west, and granted, we are not talking about an incredible conference, but certainly decent basketball. So I went and looked into who the fuck long beach state really is and I came up with this play.
Pitt is a good team, and as long as they keep winning like they did last year, top recruits are going to keep them in the top 20-40 of college basketball, but with that being said they have a lot to work on. Despite having fell asleep at the wheel against rider, there is much more to the story tonight. Pitt has 10 Underclassmen on their roster. They are a very very talented team, but also a team that has work to do on their rotation, their lineups, and their leadership.
Long Beach is a team that is lead by two very strong seniors Casper Ware and Larry Anderson and these two do not lack experience in any way. Ware is likely going to have to match up with gibbs, and although I would be foolish to think that Ware is on the same talent level as his counterpart, i think the bottom line is this is a much bigger game for Ware and his Senior laden squad, than it is for a big name BIG EAST team whose just trying to get it together before the conference season (aka the real season) begins.
Long beach will need to drive to the basket and get pitt into foul trouble, as they know that they are not as talented or as deep as Pitt, especially on offense. So they must utilize their veterans in this big game, and to be honest there must be many people in their program and around the country who think this LBSU team is worth its salt.
They play a VERY tough non conference schedule, and that is obviously their Athletic Director's way of pushing his school for a tournament bid.
They play San Diego State, Louisville, Kansas, North Carolina and Xavier - all before Christmas.
Somebody thinks this team is decent.
This will also be Pitt's 3rd game in 6 days, and they do not play great defense as it is, so I think winning by 14 might be a bit of a stretch as long as LBSU plays good hard nosed basketball and keeps the turnovers to a minimum.
FINALLY, LBSU starts a pretty decent sized lineup with a front court that boast 6'6 6'7 6'8 and decent weight on the PF and C positions. Pitt is an undersized team this season and their starting Center Malcolm Gilbert may have a tough time catching the ball tonight as he injured his finger last game. Gilbert seems to be the key factor in their possible championship run this year, we will see if his play is as sharp as it needs to be tonight against a solid west coast team.
Record Update
So we caught our first loss in basketball on what should have been a NO PLAY on the Florida game. I think that we really got screwed there in the 3rd part of the game where Florida kinda gave up, but still not a play we should have made. 2-1-1 in college bball today and yet again another blunder in college football. If we dont end this season at a better pace than this, Im sorry to say folks but I will have to no longer continue that sport, its cutting into our profit margin too much, and seemingly entails too much work. Hopefully we can right the ship soon and get some momentum headed into bowl season.
2011-2012
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124-102-9 OVERALL
51-35-4 NFL
67-66-4 NCAA FOOTBALL
6-1-1 NCAA BASKETBALL
2011-2012
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124-102-9 OVERALL
51-35-4 NFL
67-66-4 NCAA FOOTBALL
6-1-1 NCAA BASKETBALL
Tuesday, November 15, 2011
back to football real quick
NIU -17.5 V Ball State
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Yes NIU is a huge public favorite. Yes Ball state has covered a BUNCH of games this season and 4 in a row. Yes, they play in the same conference. But when you get down to it, ball state is injured, playing their 3rd road game in a row, against a HOT NIU team that just came off a 3 game roadie where they whipped ass on offense every contest. I just do not see how Ball State stays in this game in the 3rd and 4th quarter. Just does not seem very likely that they will stop Harnish, who is clearly the MVP of the conference, and with such long drives the NIU defense has had plenty of chance to rest these past couple games between series which is a big deal in this FAST PACED league. These are Harnish's last two home games and I think he intends on repeating special performances that we have become accustomed to.
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Yes NIU is a huge public favorite. Yes Ball state has covered a BUNCH of games this season and 4 in a row. Yes, they play in the same conference. But when you get down to it, ball state is injured, playing their 3rd road game in a row, against a HOT NIU team that just came off a 3 game roadie where they whipped ass on offense every contest. I just do not see how Ball State stays in this game in the 3rd and 4th quarter. Just does not seem very likely that they will stop Harnish, who is clearly the MVP of the conference, and with such long drives the NIU defense has had plenty of chance to rest these past couple games between series which is a big deal in this FAST PACED league. These are Harnish's last two home games and I think he intends on repeating special performances that we have become accustomed to.
Mich St +7.5 V Duke
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Mich St played a solid 3/4 of the game against UNC, and showed a lot of poise for an undersized, inexperienced ball club. I think tonight their motivation to spoil Coach K's celebration and their experience against a very very strong UNC team on Veterans day will prove very valuable here vs. Duke. Duke has yet to play anyone of stellar competition, I know belmont is good, but I think we saw today that the immense effort belmont puts in is no match for the upper echelon talent that we see in these major basketball schools. Mich state should be able to keep duke from too many transition buckets if they just can utilize their possessions a bit better than they did against carolina. But trust me, they are very happy to be back indoors.
2011-2012
-----
122-100-9 OVERALL
51-35-4 NFL
67-65-4 NCAA FOOTBALL
4-0-1 NCAA BASKETBALL
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Mich St played a solid 3/4 of the game against UNC, and showed a lot of poise for an undersized, inexperienced ball club. I think tonight their motivation to spoil Coach K's celebration and their experience against a very very strong UNC team on Veterans day will prove very valuable here vs. Duke. Duke has yet to play anyone of stellar competition, I know belmont is good, but I think we saw today that the immense effort belmont puts in is no match for the upper echelon talent that we see in these major basketball schools. Mich state should be able to keep duke from too many transition buckets if they just can utilize their possessions a bit better than they did against carolina. But trust me, they are very happy to be back indoors.
2011-2012
-----
122-100-9 OVERALL
51-35-4 NFL
67-65-4 NCAA FOOTBALL
4-0-1 NCAA BASKETBALL
Under 136.5 Florida V Ohio St.
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Both of these teams are powerhouse basketball squads, and while these two teams are slapping the bottom of the barrel in their respective out of conference schedules, this will be the test for both teams that analysts, handicappers and talking heads refer to when the schedule starts to tighten up. This game is one where last year Sullinger had 5 offensive rebounds and 5 defensive rebounds in a large ohio st victory. I think that State knows that this florida team is one which shoots the lights out, and with fresh legs in an early season, State really needs to use the entire shot clock while utilizing their height and size advantages down low.
Florida is very confident that they can hang with ohio state, and so is the betting public, but I honestly see this coming down to shot selection and talent level. The under is the right play here not only because the total is suspiciously low (considering their last score 93-75) but also because neither of these teams has played against a talented, athletic defense of tonight's caliber in at least 6 months. I think this is a game that starts very slow and continues to pick up, coming very close to the total in a similar fashion to UNC v Mich st on the boat. (and hey that was the SAME TOTAL!)
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Both of these teams are powerhouse basketball squads, and while these two teams are slapping the bottom of the barrel in their respective out of conference schedules, this will be the test for both teams that analysts, handicappers and talking heads refer to when the schedule starts to tighten up. This game is one where last year Sullinger had 5 offensive rebounds and 5 defensive rebounds in a large ohio st victory. I think that State knows that this florida team is one which shoots the lights out, and with fresh legs in an early season, State really needs to use the entire shot clock while utilizing their height and size advantages down low.
Florida is very confident that they can hang with ohio state, and so is the betting public, but I honestly see this coming down to shot selection and talent level. The under is the right play here not only because the total is suspiciously low (considering their last score 93-75) but also because neither of these teams has played against a talented, athletic defense of tonight's caliber in at least 6 months. I think this is a game that starts very slow and continues to pick up, coming very close to the total in a similar fashion to UNC v Mich st on the boat. (and hey that was the SAME TOTAL!)
November Madness
So its the beginning of the basketball season and we stand at 4-0.
Lets see if we cant have another winning day in our favorite sport!!!
2:00 pm game
Baylor -10 V SDSU
------------------
San Diego State has a lot to worry about today. Firstly, they lost 4 starters from last year's incredible team and now only return one player in their starting lineup. Secondly, there are many gaps in their rotation and in their roster, because they had two players who were expected to make an impact this year, who no longer play for the Aztecs. One player left for Kansas, and another player was denied eligibility.
San Diego state can still play from the perimeter, but Baylor is a very dangerous team to get into a shoot out with, and they will present problems in the areas of rebounding and interior defense for SDSU, which usually leads to fouls and extra points. I see this game getting ugly by the end, 85-62 Baylor.
SDSU is living off of reputation this season and their coach has even said that its "unfair" to compare this year's team to last years record setters, unfortunately for them this team couldnt hold a candle to last years.
I am aware that one of Baylor's best players, Jones, is not playing tonight, but honestly it will not matter against this very inexperienced, understaffed team.
Lets see if we cant have another winning day in our favorite sport!!!
2:00 pm game
Baylor -10 V SDSU
------------------
San Diego State has a lot to worry about today. Firstly, they lost 4 starters from last year's incredible team and now only return one player in their starting lineup. Secondly, there are many gaps in their rotation and in their roster, because they had two players who were expected to make an impact this year, who no longer play for the Aztecs. One player left for Kansas, and another player was denied eligibility.
San Diego state can still play from the perimeter, but Baylor is a very dangerous team to get into a shoot out with, and they will present problems in the areas of rebounding and interior defense for SDSU, which usually leads to fouls and extra points. I see this game getting ugly by the end, 85-62 Baylor.
SDSU is living off of reputation this season and their coach has even said that its "unfair" to compare this year's team to last years record setters, unfortunately for them this team couldnt hold a candle to last years.
I am aware that one of Baylor's best players, Jones, is not playing tonight, but honestly it will not matter against this very inexperienced, understaffed team.
Monday, November 14, 2011
MNF
Last week I got completely screwed on the Under play. 17 points in the last 2:15 of the first half, made me lose my under by 6 points.
But I am not discouraged and I believe that this game will go Under
MNF
Vikings @ Green Bay UNDER 50.5 & Minnesota +13.5
First off lets start with the facts. This is a very interesting game, the two teams know one another well and played less than a month ago in Minnesota. Ponder looked incredible and kept the game extremely close, but inexperience and Minnesota's weak pass Defense ended up giving Green Bay a win. Tonight there is just too much at stake to let GB pass all over the field. Minnesota has had 2 weeks (bye) to come up with a game plan to slow down the best team in football. Their offense is improving thanks to McNabb's departure and AP's resurrection, and now they look like a formidable team.
This is like the Superbowl for the Vikings, and I think their strategy will keep them in the game.
What the Vikings need to do, is control the clock, and not allow the game to get to 60 points like last time. What they will need to do is utilize their play action and keep the defense on their toes as much as possible. Some long pass plays are fine to keep them honest, but this is a team that they should be cautious about giving the ball back to. Not to mention they have let up 22 sacks this year, and need to get rid of the rock immediately.
On offense the packers have let up 20 sacks to their opposition. Minnesota has not had the best year as a team, but they have 24 sacks on the season as a defense, and can definitely use their highly paid interior linemen to even out the battle. I see a very sharp number in this over/under, and to me this might even hit 48 points. But the under HAS to be the play, b/c even if this strategy is completely unsuccessful, it will eat up clock on both sides of the football.
Not to mention, this is a decent interdivision rivalry, and Minnesota lost both games to GB last year, and already dropped one at home this year. This is going to be a closer, more hard fought game, then people think. Green Bay may not be facing the best team they have played this year, but still this could prove to be one of their tougher tests this season.
But I am not discouraged and I believe that this game will go Under
MNF
Vikings @ Green Bay UNDER 50.5 & Minnesota +13.5
First off lets start with the facts. This is a very interesting game, the two teams know one another well and played less than a month ago in Minnesota. Ponder looked incredible and kept the game extremely close, but inexperience and Minnesota's weak pass Defense ended up giving Green Bay a win. Tonight there is just too much at stake to let GB pass all over the field. Minnesota has had 2 weeks (bye) to come up with a game plan to slow down the best team in football. Their offense is improving thanks to McNabb's departure and AP's resurrection, and now they look like a formidable team.
This is like the Superbowl for the Vikings, and I think their strategy will keep them in the game.
What the Vikings need to do, is control the clock, and not allow the game to get to 60 points like last time. What they will need to do is utilize their play action and keep the defense on their toes as much as possible. Some long pass plays are fine to keep them honest, but this is a team that they should be cautious about giving the ball back to. Not to mention they have let up 22 sacks this year, and need to get rid of the rock immediately.
On offense the packers have let up 20 sacks to their opposition. Minnesota has not had the best year as a team, but they have 24 sacks on the season as a defense, and can definitely use their highly paid interior linemen to even out the battle. I see a very sharp number in this over/under, and to me this might even hit 48 points. But the under HAS to be the play, b/c even if this strategy is completely unsuccessful, it will eat up clock on both sides of the football.
Not to mention, this is a decent interdivision rivalry, and Minnesota lost both games to GB last year, and already dropped one at home this year. This is going to be a closer, more hard fought game, then people think. Green Bay may not be facing the best team they have played this year, but still this could prove to be one of their tougher tests this season.
NCAA BBALL MONDAY
I know... youre here for the monday night football. Well thats coming, but first I thought I would try and make a sharp play in a sport I know very well.
Detroit U +7 V ND
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Notre Dame, we all remember them right? They are the big east team that plays well all year every year and fizzles out at the end to make it to the tournament but not really win anything.
Well they are playing Detroit U tonight, and I would like to tell you that Detroit U has a very good chance of winning this game on the court.
Who the hell are they? They are a team that plays in the same league as Butler. They were a very strong team last year, who really could put up points no matter who they played.
Last year as a young team they kept it within 10 against Syracuse in only the second game of the season, and held them to 66 points. They lost by only 6 to miss st., and kept a close game with butler first time around.
This year they hit for over 90 points in their home opener, they can shoot, they play well and they are obviously looking to have a big year as their out of conference schedule includes:
Notre Dame
St. Johns
Alabama
Miss St.
I dont think their athletic director would have added this caliber of games to their schedule unless he wholeheartedly thought that Detroit U would have a "tournament worthy" year this year, and it all starts tonight against ND. They will be playing their ass off tonight, that I can guarantee.
on the Notre Dame side.
I am sure they will be good again this year. They get top talent every season and have become on of the best places for a recruit to play in all of college basketball. But lets look at the current day. They played a team much worse than Detroit in their home opener, they only return 2 starters this season, and although ATKINS will do a fine job at replacing hansborough, at the moment, he is not fully developed the way he will be by Tournament time.
notre dame does have a distinct edge in their bench, and that may be where we meet our demise, but just like any basketball team from high school to pro, benches can be hindered by an unfinished or unestablished rotation. they certainly have not discovered their entire rotation with all these new players, and I think the experience and high expectations of this Detroit Titans team could even out some of the talent discrepancies.
Detroit U +7 V ND
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Notre Dame, we all remember them right? They are the big east team that plays well all year every year and fizzles out at the end to make it to the tournament but not really win anything.
Well they are playing Detroit U tonight, and I would like to tell you that Detroit U has a very good chance of winning this game on the court.
Who the hell are they? They are a team that plays in the same league as Butler. They were a very strong team last year, who really could put up points no matter who they played.
Last year as a young team they kept it within 10 against Syracuse in only the second game of the season, and held them to 66 points. They lost by only 6 to miss st., and kept a close game with butler first time around.
This year they hit for over 90 points in their home opener, they can shoot, they play well and they are obviously looking to have a big year as their out of conference schedule includes:
Notre Dame
St. Johns
Alabama
Miss St.
I dont think their athletic director would have added this caliber of games to their schedule unless he wholeheartedly thought that Detroit U would have a "tournament worthy" year this year, and it all starts tonight against ND. They will be playing their ass off tonight, that I can guarantee.
on the Notre Dame side.
I am sure they will be good again this year. They get top talent every season and have become on of the best places for a recruit to play in all of college basketball. But lets look at the current day. They played a team much worse than Detroit in their home opener, they only return 2 starters this season, and although ATKINS will do a fine job at replacing hansborough, at the moment, he is not fully developed the way he will be by Tournament time.
notre dame does have a distinct edge in their bench, and that may be where we meet our demise, but just like any basketball team from high school to pro, benches can be hindered by an unfinished or unestablished rotation. they certainly have not discovered their entire rotation with all these new players, and I think the experience and high expectations of this Detroit Titans team could even out some of the talent discrepancies.
4-3 in NFL
Another winning week in the NFL. Not what I wanted but I will take it and move on. I think if any plays should have been cut off the card the Jets have to be it. The under in the 49ers game lost by 5, but in reality it was the right play, as were the falcons. What is wrong with Mike Smith's brain? what a fucking moron.
2011-2012
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121-98-8 OVERALL
51-33-4 NFL
67-65-4 NCAA FOOTBALL
3-0-0 NCAA BASKETBALL
2011-2012
-----
121-98-8 OVERALL
51-33-4 NFL
67-65-4 NCAA FOOTBALL
3-0-0 NCAA BASKETBALL
Sunday, November 13, 2011
Seattle +7
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Seattle is the play here. Seattle has played well against a couple of the better teams in the league. I know seattle blows dick sometimes, but the bottom line here is the Ravens are VERY inconsistent. The ravens will definitely be able to handle the Seattle offensive attack, but Seattle is a decent defensive squad and can handle the ravens one dimensional bullshit offense. I think also that the Travel is going to catch Baltimore off guard.
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Seattle is the play here. Seattle has played well against a couple of the better teams in the league. I know seattle blows dick sometimes, but the bottom line here is the Ravens are VERY inconsistent. The ravens will definitely be able to handle the Seattle offensive attack, but Seattle is a decent defensive squad and can handle the ravens one dimensional bullshit offense. I think also that the Travel is going to catch Baltimore off guard.
Jets -1
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What Can I say? the jets Pass D is excellent, the patriots D Is awful. The Jets D gets better in the RZ, the patriots cannot run the ball in the RZ.
The Jets do not lose tonight, Im sorry New Englanders, we are just going to have to get used to the idea that the New England Patriots are not that good. Think about it, 0 Points in the first half against the CRIPPLED giants. Jets are on fire and they are very very good at home. Pats run D is solid in the short field and we will have to see sanchez really step up today, I think he is ready.
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What Can I say? the jets Pass D is excellent, the patriots D Is awful. The Jets D gets better in the RZ, the patriots cannot run the ball in the RZ.
The Jets do not lose tonight, Im sorry New Englanders, we are just going to have to get used to the idea that the New England Patriots are not that good. Think about it, 0 Points in the first half against the CRIPPLED giants. Jets are on fire and they are very very good at home. Pats run D is solid in the short field and we will have to see sanchez really step up today, I think he is ready.
NFL SUNDAY CARD
ATL +0
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Got this one early.
This is a tough one. I like Atlanta honestly. I think they played a cupcake team last week, which scares me, but what would scare me more is betting on a New Orleans Road team that has caught all four of its losses (ATS) on the road. This makes plenty of sense, The saints are much better at home, as they should be, thats a wonderful place to play and an excellent crowd.
As far as the football side of things. When New Orleans loses it is because they let the other team score too much. They certainly have no problem themselves putting up points, but they do lose their ability to contain the run against teams like St Louis, Carolina, and Tampa. These teams also have strong QBs except Feeley who just had the game of his life on New Orleans. Bottom line is its friday night, and Im locking this in NOW. New orleans played well last week, but will have a tougher time with the surging ATL offense and ATL's improved D.
Over 48 & Dallas +5.5
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Bills are the play, but then again they arent. Dallas is the sure sharp play, but landing at 5.5 on a popular home team doesnt really intrigue me.
i like the over, but dallas has too many key injuries. They do have Bryant and romo, which makes it a considerable play. Plus the number is right where I thought it would be, and the game is on the big stage at dallas. I think dallas passes all over the bills, and the bills although they will move the ball, they may have a hard time scoring at the capacity that I anticipate Dallas scoring. 31-24 Dallas.
Denver +3
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love the Broncos in this spot. I think that People over value some of the wins Kansas City has. KC has some major problems with their team. They do not score in the running game, and they do not move the ball well in the passing game. KC is solid in the RZ defense but one of the biggest criticisms of Tim Tebow is what he does with the ball under pressure. Tebow has been sacked 14 times this year and probably four or five are his own fault. No problem though with KC, b/c they have 9 Sacks as a fucking team!!!
ALL YEAR. Despite their meltdown last game KC has been a cover machine as of late, and I understand the apprehension of some people to back Denver. But Denver plain and simple has played a lot of decent competition in their recent games. Oakland is not bad, Detroit is solid, San Diego is Okay, and Green Bay, although it was not a game really, set the bar for this team to begin to play better as they started to play to their higher capacity.
I think the Broncos win this game in Kansas City as Both teams will struggle to move the ball against one another in a very tight game. All in all its just a bad match up for the Chiefs.
Under 42.5 San Fran V Giants
------------------
The giants have a hard time stopping the run, and they will have to beat the forty niners at a slower paced game out in san fran tomorrow. The niners are very good at controlling the clock and the pace of a game, and I think if the patriots meager defense can shut out the giants for a half, then San Fran can contain them by possessing the ball for long periods of time. Bradshaw will be out tomorrow, which means manning will be holding the rock most of the time, but honestly, that does not scare me on this under, because better men have lost to the San Fran D, and I think Eli makes a valiant effort and his team loses 20-17 in a close fought battle .
San Fran #1 in points allowed 14.8
# 1 in rush yardage per game 70.8
#8 in overall yardage 325.9 allowed
#6 at offensive rushing yardage
#30 at passing yardage
Under is 4-4 in San Fran Games
Under is 3-5 in Giants games
Under has hit in last 2 Giants games
Under has hit in last 3 San Fran games.
San Fran D has allowed only 7 TD in RZ , NO RUSHING TD.
Giants run D #24 in the league... will be attacked.
Giants RZ run D, not so terrible only 8 TDs in 43 Rushes .
The number is also extremely low for the amount these two teams average every game.
2011-2012
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117-95-8 OVERALL
47-30-4 NFL
67-65-4 NCAA FOOTBALL
3-0-0 NCAA BASKETBALL
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Got this one early.
This is a tough one. I like Atlanta honestly. I think they played a cupcake team last week, which scares me, but what would scare me more is betting on a New Orleans Road team that has caught all four of its losses (ATS) on the road. This makes plenty of sense, The saints are much better at home, as they should be, thats a wonderful place to play and an excellent crowd.
As far as the football side of things. When New Orleans loses it is because they let the other team score too much. They certainly have no problem themselves putting up points, but they do lose their ability to contain the run against teams like St Louis, Carolina, and Tampa. These teams also have strong QBs except Feeley who just had the game of his life on New Orleans. Bottom line is its friday night, and Im locking this in NOW. New orleans played well last week, but will have a tougher time with the surging ATL offense and ATL's improved D.
Over 48 & Dallas +5.5
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Bills are the play, but then again they arent. Dallas is the sure sharp play, but landing at 5.5 on a popular home team doesnt really intrigue me.
i like the over, but dallas has too many key injuries. They do have Bryant and romo, which makes it a considerable play. Plus the number is right where I thought it would be, and the game is on the big stage at dallas. I think dallas passes all over the bills, and the bills although they will move the ball, they may have a hard time scoring at the capacity that I anticipate Dallas scoring. 31-24 Dallas.
Denver +3
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love the Broncos in this spot. I think that People over value some of the wins Kansas City has. KC has some major problems with their team. They do not score in the running game, and they do not move the ball well in the passing game. KC is solid in the RZ defense but one of the biggest criticisms of Tim Tebow is what he does with the ball under pressure. Tebow has been sacked 14 times this year and probably four or five are his own fault. No problem though with KC, b/c they have 9 Sacks as a fucking team!!!
ALL YEAR. Despite their meltdown last game KC has been a cover machine as of late, and I understand the apprehension of some people to back Denver. But Denver plain and simple has played a lot of decent competition in their recent games. Oakland is not bad, Detroit is solid, San Diego is Okay, and Green Bay, although it was not a game really, set the bar for this team to begin to play better as they started to play to their higher capacity.
I think the Broncos win this game in Kansas City as Both teams will struggle to move the ball against one another in a very tight game. All in all its just a bad match up for the Chiefs.
Under 42.5 San Fran V Giants
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The giants have a hard time stopping the run, and they will have to beat the forty niners at a slower paced game out in san fran tomorrow. The niners are very good at controlling the clock and the pace of a game, and I think if the patriots meager defense can shut out the giants for a half, then San Fran can contain them by possessing the ball for long periods of time. Bradshaw will be out tomorrow, which means manning will be holding the rock most of the time, but honestly, that does not scare me on this under, because better men have lost to the San Fran D, and I think Eli makes a valiant effort and his team loses 20-17 in a close fought battle .
San Fran #1 in points allowed 14.8
# 1 in rush yardage per game 70.8
#8 in overall yardage 325.9 allowed
#6 at offensive rushing yardage
#30 at passing yardage
Under is 4-4 in San Fran Games
Under is 3-5 in Giants games
Under has hit in last 2 Giants games
Under has hit in last 3 San Fran games.
San Fran D has allowed only 7 TD in RZ , NO RUSHING TD.
Giants run D #24 in the league... will be attacked.
Giants RZ run D, not so terrible only 8 TDs in 43 Rushes .
The number is also extremely low for the amount these two teams average every game.
2011-2012
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117-95-8 OVERALL
47-30-4 NFL
67-65-4 NCAA FOOTBALL
3-0-0 NCAA BASKETBALL
Saturday, November 12, 2011
another
Florida +2.5 V South Carolina
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Florida played very well last week and although this is a down year for them I completely feel that this is a talented team which would be very much in the Bowl talks if their QB had not been hurt a good part of the early season. They WILL put it together this week as their superior athletes beat the Gamecocks on the road...
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Florida played very well last week and although this is a down year for them I completely feel that this is a talented team which would be very much in the Bowl talks if their QB had not been hurt a good part of the early season. They WILL put it together this week as their superior athletes beat the Gamecocks on the road...
Please visit our affiliates at Cappazoid.blogspot.com and check out the ORIGINAL source for these write ups and picks!!!
Illinois +1
Michigan has played great this year in the Big House, but have lost on the road at Michigan State and Iowa. I think the road woes continue this week at Illinois. Illinois has suffered three tough losses in a row, all to solid teams, but are now back at home and coming off a bye. I think that helps them get back on track against Michigan. Illinois' defense is on the small and quick side, and I think that could be an advantage against the speedy and dangerous Denard Robinson. Illinois also lost a heartbreaker last year in Ann Arbor, and I think they will be looking for revenge in a game that could get their season back on track.
Iowa +2.5
Michigan State is another team that has struggled on the road this year. Iowa, meanwhile, is coming off a nice home win against Michigan, and looks to continue their success at home. With the exception of the win over Wisconsin, State hasn't done anything overly impressive this season. All the taclk about State's stellar defense was probably a little exaggerated, as they racked up good stats against weak opponents. Nebraska did a great job stopping MSU's offense recently, and I think Iowa can learn a thing or two from watching that tape. Iowa has been a completely different team at home this year, and I think with a steady dose of Marcus Coker, who has been playing much, much better, and Vanderburg, Iowa can do enough in this game to pull the W.
Texas A&M -6
Texas A&M has had two tough games, but I still think they are a very good football team. Kansas State's defense has gotten lit up the past two weeks, granted by very good quarterbacks in Landry Jones and Brandon Weeden, but Ryan Tannehill is no slouch either, and will probably have a big day unless something drastic changes for K State. Both teams can score, but I think the defensive side is the difference in this game. A&M's defense is pretty solid, while K State's has shown itself to be vulnerable. Kansas State is a team with a lot of heart, and A&M has melted down late in games several times this year, but I think there is every reason that A&M should win this football game.
Ohio State at Purdue Under 45.5
Ohio State faces a tough road test in this game at Purdue, who has played some good and some bad games this season. Ohio State has a talented but young quarterback in Braxton Miller, and will probably look to pound the ball with Boom Herron more than anything on the road here today. After playing Penn State close and beating Illinois, Purdue has dropped back to back games at Michigan and Wisconsin. Both blowout losses came to teams with high-powered offenses, while the low-scoring, close contests were against more defensive teams. I think Ohio State, though their offense has improved, definitely falls under the defensive teams category. Ohio State's defense has been solid all year, and I think they will do a good job limiting Purdue's effectiveness today. However, Purdue needs to win two of its last three games to become bowl eligible, and I think we see a spirited effort from them today in front of the home crowd.
Louisiana Tech -1.5
Louisiana Tech is a pretty solid squad, whose been playing much better after a 1-4 start to the season. Let's not forget, though, that three of those losses came to very talented teams in Southern Miss, Houston, and Mississippi State. Ole Miss on the other hand, is a bad football team with too much youth and inability to finish football games. Louisiana Tech's quarterback Colby Cameron is playing very well right now, and I look for him to continue his success against a relatively weak opponent in Ole Miss. Houston Nutt's job is in jeopardy with a string of in-conference losses, which never helps the team, while LA Tech is rolling along and competing for a WAC championship. I look for LA to play well today and knock off the Rebels.
Illinois +1
Michigan has played great this year in the Big House, but have lost on the road at Michigan State and Iowa. I think the road woes continue this week at Illinois. Illinois has suffered three tough losses in a row, all to solid teams, but are now back at home and coming off a bye. I think that helps them get back on track against Michigan. Illinois' defense is on the small and quick side, and I think that could be an advantage against the speedy and dangerous Denard Robinson. Illinois also lost a heartbreaker last year in Ann Arbor, and I think they will be looking for revenge in a game that could get their season back on track.
Iowa +2.5
Michigan State is another team that has struggled on the road this year. Iowa, meanwhile, is coming off a nice home win against Michigan, and looks to continue their success at home. With the exception of the win over Wisconsin, State hasn't done anything overly impressive this season. All the taclk about State's stellar defense was probably a little exaggerated, as they racked up good stats against weak opponents. Nebraska did a great job stopping MSU's offense recently, and I think Iowa can learn a thing or two from watching that tape. Iowa has been a completely different team at home this year, and I think with a steady dose of Marcus Coker, who has been playing much, much better, and Vanderburg, Iowa can do enough in this game to pull the W.
Texas A&M -6
Texas A&M has had two tough games, but I still think they are a very good football team. Kansas State's defense has gotten lit up the past two weeks, granted by very good quarterbacks in Landry Jones and Brandon Weeden, but Ryan Tannehill is no slouch either, and will probably have a big day unless something drastic changes for K State. Both teams can score, but I think the defensive side is the difference in this game. A&M's defense is pretty solid, while K State's has shown itself to be vulnerable. Kansas State is a team with a lot of heart, and A&M has melted down late in games several times this year, but I think there is every reason that A&M should win this football game.
Ohio State at Purdue Under 45.5
Ohio State faces a tough road test in this game at Purdue, who has played some good and some bad games this season. Ohio State has a talented but young quarterback in Braxton Miller, and will probably look to pound the ball with Boom Herron more than anything on the road here today. After playing Penn State close and beating Illinois, Purdue has dropped back to back games at Michigan and Wisconsin. Both blowout losses came to teams with high-powered offenses, while the low-scoring, close contests were against more defensive teams. I think Ohio State, though their offense has improved, definitely falls under the defensive teams category. Ohio State's defense has been solid all year, and I think they will do a good job limiting Purdue's effectiveness today. However, Purdue needs to win two of its last three games to become bowl eligible, and I think we see a spirited effort from them today in front of the home crowd.
Louisiana Tech -1.5
Louisiana Tech is a pretty solid squad, whose been playing much better after a 1-4 start to the season. Let's not forget, though, that three of those losses came to very talented teams in Southern Miss, Houston, and Mississippi State. Ole Miss on the other hand, is a bad football team with too much youth and inability to finish football games. Louisiana Tech's quarterback Colby Cameron is playing very well right now, and I look for him to continue his success against a relatively weak opponent in Ole Miss. Houston Nutt's job is in jeopardy with a string of in-conference losses, which never helps the team, while LA Tech is rolling along and competing for a WAC championship. I look for LA to play well today and knock off the Rebels.
Friday, November 11, 2011
Under 136.5 UNC V MICH ST. (bball)
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I would have taken UNC, but the public is kicking the door down to bet against tom izzo's team so I cant consciously pick a side with such a long season in front of us, speculation is not a smart move.
So I will go with experience in stead. In college, when I played, I could shoot the lights out pre season, mid season, whatever, and the MINUTE i stepped outdoors I needed to entirely change my shooting mentality, because the 40 footers were NOT dropping at the street ball court. We have wind, we have a terrible backdrop for jump shot focal points, and we have a court on a fucking ship.
Sans overtime, I think this is a solid play.
------
I would have taken UNC, but the public is kicking the door down to bet against tom izzo's team so I cant consciously pick a side with such a long season in front of us, speculation is not a smart move.
So I will go with experience in stead. In college, when I played, I could shoot the lights out pre season, mid season, whatever, and the MINUTE i stepped outdoors I needed to entirely change my shooting mentality, because the 40 footers were NOT dropping at the street ball court. We have wind, we have a terrible backdrop for jump shot focal points, and we have a court on a fucking ship.
Sans overtime, I think this is a solid play.
Plays on the way.
4-1 Yesterday on a tough loss in Georgia Tech. They really screwed the pooch with that personal foul late in the third quarter after a successful stop on 3rd down. Plays like that can really ruin a team's chances of covering.
2011-2012
-----
112-89-7 OVERALL
47-30-4 NFL
63-59-3 NCAA FOOTBALL
2-0-0 NCAA BASKETBALL
2011-2012
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112-89-7 OVERALL
47-30-4 NFL
63-59-3 NCAA FOOTBALL
2-0-0 NCAA BASKETBALL
Thursday, November 10, 2011
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYS
Georgia Tech Pick Em
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Tech has been playing much better since their consecutive losses and I just have not been convinced by V tech all season. Expect this to be a close one but I think Georgia gets the few bounces they need to win this one.
Ohio -7
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This is a huge steamroll play, very little movement, and a whole lot of public support, but the bottom line is this is the better football team. C Mich is just not worth its salt, they will get shit stomped tonight.
NFL THURSDAY
NFL thursday (PLAY OF THE DAY!!!)
Under 48.5
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2011-2012
-----
108-88-7 OVERALL
46-30-4 NFL
60-58-3 NCAA FOOTBALL
2-0-0 NCAA BASKETBALL
Under 48.5
------------
Well today is a new day for the chargers, they did put up a hell of an effort against the league's best team only 4.5 days ago, and I think they have some positive momentum to hang their hat on, but its about time they get back on the winning train. Honestly I think San Diego is the correct play here, but with the completely unpredictable nature of OAKLAND its very hard to pinpoint a stat or a trend that makes a handicapper confident that they will lose by 8 points to a Turnover Prone San Diego team .
Bottom line is this, Palmer has 6 INTs in a VERY short time, and Rivers has 14 INTs (3 last week). Both of these teams need a win, and CANNOT afford to turn the ball over, which to me means the running game will be in full swing. I do understand that both teams' starting running backs are out tonight, but luckily they have veteran backups in BUSH (oak) and TOLBERT (SD) where they can rely on 20+ carries from each of them respectively.
There are too many injuries to overlook here. Floyd is out for the chargers, which is a decent size hit to their passing attack, plus they will throw to Tolbert, but he is a short yardage threat in the passing game and will not be as effective as mathews is when he is in the game.
For the Raiders, pretty much same story, they have a very good #2, but he is going to be relegated to running the rock more than anything else. Palmer may try to get into the groove and toss the rock, but honestly i think the coaches continue to hold his hand and keep him on a short leash in such an important game. Also Janikowski may be out, and certainly will be a bit gimpy with his hamstring still bothering him (lets not forget they played 4.5 days ago.)
2011-2012
-----
108-88-7 OVERALL
46-30-4 NFL
60-58-3 NCAA FOOTBALL
2-0-0 NCAA BASKETBALL
Wednesday, November 9, 2011
Tonight's Basketball Game
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Duquesne +9 V Arizona
We have all heard the news about arizona not being so fantastic to start this season, and perhaps that is true of both these squads as they both lost a lot of talent last year. One thing to consider though is the Matchups down low. Both teams will be playing big men that are inexperienced and a bit wet behind the ears, but arizona starts a very large Natyazhko at center who seemingly has some development time to become an impact player. But the word on this guy is that he is slow on his feet, not a great rebounder and most importantly for my argument is not used to playing for more than 20 min a game.
Lets not forget this Dukes team is very well coached and at one point won 11 straight last season, we know their departed seniors had a lot to do with that, but Duquesne established a winning culture yet again last year. Arizona will definitely be able to score on the DUKES , as they have their own interior problems, but I think that at the end of the day they win 78-71 over a hungry Duquesne team .
Lehigh V St. Johns Over 149.5
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Lehigh has no prayer in this game, but if they intend to try and play basketball with the johnnies then they will have to use their high scoring, high powered up tempo style to do so. Expect a lot of fouling as well as lehigh is undersized in their frontcourt and bench.
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Duquesne +9 V Arizona
We have all heard the news about arizona not being so fantastic to start this season, and perhaps that is true of both these squads as they both lost a lot of talent last year. One thing to consider though is the Matchups down low. Both teams will be playing big men that are inexperienced and a bit wet behind the ears, but arizona starts a very large Natyazhko at center who seemingly has some development time to become an impact player. But the word on this guy is that he is slow on his feet, not a great rebounder and most importantly for my argument is not used to playing for more than 20 min a game.
Lets not forget this Dukes team is very well coached and at one point won 11 straight last season, we know their departed seniors had a lot to do with that, but Duquesne established a winning culture yet again last year. Arizona will definitely be able to score on the DUKES , as they have their own interior problems, but I think that at the end of the day they win 78-71 over a hungry Duquesne team .
Lehigh V St. Johns Over 149.5
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Lehigh has no prayer in this game, but if they intend to try and play basketball with the johnnies then they will have to use their high scoring, high powered up tempo style to do so. Expect a lot of fouling as well as lehigh is undersized in their frontcourt and bench.
Well, No body likes a losing streak. Especially 3 games in 2 days... YUCK.
But I think I have the train back on the rails so to speak with this pick . Plus College BBall starts tonight officially so I think we are in for a fun comeback week.
Temple -13.5
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Few things stand out to me about this game. Temple has been very poor their last 2 games, and even prior to that, they were playing well against some pretty mediocre competition prior to their two losses. I think they come out with a vengeance tonight and there is some evidence that could substantiate that.
Temple has failed to cover 2 straight as a favorite.. but played 2 VERY close games against decent MAC competition and now they are an overwhelmingly large favorite with very little public support.
Another thing is Miami Ohio's last two games were covers, and 4 of their last 5 ATS were covers, But beating up on Buffalo and last week AKRON is not impressive, and the oddsmakers must agree, cuz otherwise this would be MUCH less chalk for such a hot ATS team which started so cold early this year against better competition.
Also, every spread this season where Miami Ohio is a large underdog of 7 or more, they lose ATS and get CRUSHED on the field. Perhaps the betting public is aware of a break in the trend? but I dont think so .
Finally, there is the angle that they are coming off of a cupcake game vs akron and it will take them a quarter or two to get back in the swing.
But I think I have the train back on the rails so to speak with this pick . Plus College BBall starts tonight officially so I think we are in for a fun comeback week.
Temple -13.5
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Few things stand out to me about this game. Temple has been very poor their last 2 games, and even prior to that, they were playing well against some pretty mediocre competition prior to their two losses. I think they come out with a vengeance tonight and there is some evidence that could substantiate that.
Temple has failed to cover 2 straight as a favorite.. but played 2 VERY close games against decent MAC competition and now they are an overwhelmingly large favorite with very little public support.
Another thing is Miami Ohio's last two games were covers, and 4 of their last 5 ATS were covers, But beating up on Buffalo and last week AKRON is not impressive, and the oddsmakers must agree, cuz otherwise this would be MUCH less chalk for such a hot ATS team which started so cold early this year against better competition.
Also, every spread this season where Miami Ohio is a large underdog of 7 or more, they lose ATS and get CRUSHED on the field. Perhaps the betting public is aware of a break in the trend? but I dont think so .
Finally, there is the angle that they are coming off of a cupcake game vs akron and it will take them a quarter or two to get back in the swing.
Tuesday, November 8, 2011
Very tough loss last night, I feel like we got screwed out of a good play there. Literally 17 points in the last 2:30 of the first half, made the game go from a 10 point game to a 27 point game by half, and boy were we in trouble by then.
Still well over .500 but not the best way to start our week. All right, enough whining, there are many more games to play.
Tonight we have 2 college football MAC matches that are sure to excite and delight.
I do not know about the W michigan game, i will be back later with more info and perhaps a play on that, but I LOVE the NIU Vs BG game.
---------------------------------------
Bowling Green +5
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Any line from 5 to 6 in football is fishy, especially when the favorite is a team that scores 40+ ppg. When a team scores that many points, lines tend to look bigger than they really are, because obviously 7 points in a 70 point game is not as big a deal as it is in a 39 point game.
So tonight, with NIU seemingly coming in as a heavy public favorite, one would think there would be a large line, but this is not so. Not even after they beat TOLEDO last week? NO.
Also, NIU is playing its third straight Road game, couple that with the fact that they do NOT defend well on the road (or at all for that matter) and they are going up against a talented, hungry and high scoring Bowling green team. I think this one is the play of the day.
2011-2012
-----
106-85-7 OVERALL
46-30-4 NFL
60-55-3 NCAA FOOTBALL
Still well over .500 but not the best way to start our week. All right, enough whining, there are many more games to play.
Tonight we have 2 college football MAC matches that are sure to excite and delight.
I do not know about the W michigan game, i will be back later with more info and perhaps a play on that, but I LOVE the NIU Vs BG game.
---------------------------------------
Bowling Green +5
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Any line from 5 to 6 in football is fishy, especially when the favorite is a team that scores 40+ ppg. When a team scores that many points, lines tend to look bigger than they really are, because obviously 7 points in a 70 point game is not as big a deal as it is in a 39 point game.
So tonight, with NIU seemingly coming in as a heavy public favorite, one would think there would be a large line, but this is not so. Not even after they beat TOLEDO last week? NO.
Also, NIU is playing its third straight Road game, couple that with the fact that they do NOT defend well on the road (or at all for that matter) and they are going up against a talented, hungry and high scoring Bowling green team. I think this one is the play of the day.
2011-2012
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106-85-7 OVERALL
46-30-4 NFL
60-55-3 NCAA FOOTBALL
Monday, November 7, 2011
MNF
Well this is not an easy one, but I like this game. I clearly see an Under here tonight. If you do the math, this total should be around 51/52 and I had it at 50 to be fair, but 47.5 or 47 is very low for these two teams. Lets also consider the teams' performances against tough competition. Yes, philly COULD put up 30, but against the bears D thats not too likely. The bears held Green Bay to 27 and ATLANTA to 12. They did let up 30 to the saints, but it was not even a close game, so extra points are expected. I think the best bet is under, bears do not turn the ball over and can maintain possession long enough to slow eagles.
UNDER 48
2011-2012
-----
106-84-7 OVERALL
46-29-4 NFL
60-55-3 NCAA FOOTBALL
UNDER 48
2011-2012
-----
106-84-7 OVERALL
46-29-4 NFL
60-55-3 NCAA FOOTBALL
Sunday, November 6, 2011
4pm football
San Diego +6
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I think san diego has to play their ass off today. They are home against the best team in Football, but they should be able to take advantage of Green bay's shitty pass D (# 31).
The under could be a good play here because the fact is that SD knows they have to maintain possession and I think rivers comes back with a vengeance.
Patriots -9.5
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Giants very injured, and I think Billy B is going to win this by 13.
Under 41 Cincy V Tennessee
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I love the under in this game. I think that neither team has the offensive production it will take to blow the other away, and thats why the line has been teetering around a field goal all week. Cincy has covered a ton of spreads, and it has been their excellent coaching and Defensive prowess which has allowed them to win games. I do think Hasselbeck will have SOME time to throw, but Cincy's D will eventually get to him today. I also do not think, from what we have in front of us statistically, that Tennessee will be running with much success, as Cincy has shut down some of the NFL's better teams all year.
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I think san diego has to play their ass off today. They are home against the best team in Football, but they should be able to take advantage of Green bay's shitty pass D (# 31).
The under could be a good play here because the fact is that SD knows they have to maintain possession and I think rivers comes back with a vengeance.
Patriots -9.5
----
Giants very injured, and I think Billy B is going to win this by 13.
Under 41 Cincy V Tennessee
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I love the under in this game. I think that neither team has the offensive production it will take to blow the other away, and thats why the line has been teetering around a field goal all week. Cincy has covered a ton of spreads, and it has been their excellent coaching and Defensive prowess which has allowed them to win games. I do think Hasselbeck will have SOME time to throw, but Cincy's D will eventually get to him today. I also do not think, from what we have in front of us statistically, that Tennessee will be running with much success, as Cincy has shut down some of the NFL's better teams all year.
early NFL
Miami +4
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This is a tough game to handicap but there are a few stats that pop out to me. Firstly I think that Miami has had a ton of trouble passing the ball, and most of that is due to their inability to protect the QB. I had Miami to cover last week based on the idea that Moore would settle into the offense in his 2nd full week of starting. I think this week we will see more of the same, the chiefs do not possess a good pass rush, and with their crippled secondary, I believe they would be foolish to send linebackers and DBS on the blitz because they will leave themselves vulnerable to the underneath pass to Bush as well as the deep pass to marshall .
Saints -8
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I think this is going to be an ass whooping by the saints. We need to remember a couple things about last time these two teams played. Firstly, Tampa caught New Orleans at the end of 3 weeks of road games and caught them at home ripe for the picking. At the time NEW ORLEANs had just played two cup cake teams in Jax and Carolina, and got shell shocked by the Tampa crowd and interdivision enthusiasm. This game, the Saints come off an EMBARRASSING loss to the formerly winless Rams, where the saints had an incredibly hard time adjusting to life without Mr. Ingram. I think this week the saints bounce back with flying colors, and simply put up too many points for Tampa's mediocre (at best) offense to handle. This game could get real ugly as I believe we will see what sean peyton is made of as a coach. Can he get his team to bounce back after poor performances against sub par competition? we will find out.
Under 44 Jets V bills
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I felt this way since before capping the game statistically and I feel even stronger now. This game is going UNDER 44. The jets cannot score alongside the bills, they will absolutely need to maintain possession on offense and make 3rd down stops on defense. The bills will look to pass, but will not have an easy time doing so as the Jets pass rush has vastly improved as of late, and their DBs will be able to man up against buffalo. Buffalo wants to, needs to, has to run the rock with Jackson, and will take advantage of the Jets inability to stop the run in the open field, or in the RZ for that matter. Both of these teams have solid kickers and will play this interdivision game very tight to the hip. I expect a 17-14 win by one of the teams( not sure which) and the under to hit with flying colors. The Jets will be hampered by a banged up Burress, and that will be a factor in their RZ productivity. and by the way.. the public is LOVING the over, and the number is very low for a bills game, especially seeing that the OVer is 10-3 on the year for these two teams.
Indy +7
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I think ATLANTA is ripe for the picking. I also think the under is a solid play because of how turnover and mistake prone both of these teams are. But in the long run that can be just as much of a problem for the under as it is an asset.
Also, I think picking the colts is insane, but also extremely sharp. You have painter who is starting to get in the flow of things, you have the colts who are playing their first home game in a month... a lot of talk about how the Colts are useless without manning, one sportscaster saying "my vote is for Peyton Manning for MVP, because his team clearly cant function without him"
I think this game is a tough one to make a play on and will need to discuss with the fellow cappers. But I wanna lay it down on the colts.
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This is a tough game to handicap but there are a few stats that pop out to me. Firstly I think that Miami has had a ton of trouble passing the ball, and most of that is due to their inability to protect the QB. I had Miami to cover last week based on the idea that Moore would settle into the offense in his 2nd full week of starting. I think this week we will see more of the same, the chiefs do not possess a good pass rush, and with their crippled secondary, I believe they would be foolish to send linebackers and DBS on the blitz because they will leave themselves vulnerable to the underneath pass to Bush as well as the deep pass to marshall .
Saints -8
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I think this is going to be an ass whooping by the saints. We need to remember a couple things about last time these two teams played. Firstly, Tampa caught New Orleans at the end of 3 weeks of road games and caught them at home ripe for the picking. At the time NEW ORLEANs had just played two cup cake teams in Jax and Carolina, and got shell shocked by the Tampa crowd and interdivision enthusiasm. This game, the Saints come off an EMBARRASSING loss to the formerly winless Rams, where the saints had an incredibly hard time adjusting to life without Mr. Ingram. I think this week the saints bounce back with flying colors, and simply put up too many points for Tampa's mediocre (at best) offense to handle. This game could get real ugly as I believe we will see what sean peyton is made of as a coach. Can he get his team to bounce back after poor performances against sub par competition? we will find out.
Under 44 Jets V bills
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I felt this way since before capping the game statistically and I feel even stronger now. This game is going UNDER 44. The jets cannot score alongside the bills, they will absolutely need to maintain possession on offense and make 3rd down stops on defense. The bills will look to pass, but will not have an easy time doing so as the Jets pass rush has vastly improved as of late, and their DBs will be able to man up against buffalo. Buffalo wants to, needs to, has to run the rock with Jackson, and will take advantage of the Jets inability to stop the run in the open field, or in the RZ for that matter. Both of these teams have solid kickers and will play this interdivision game very tight to the hip. I expect a 17-14 win by one of the teams( not sure which) and the under to hit with flying colors. The Jets will be hampered by a banged up Burress, and that will be a factor in their RZ productivity. and by the way.. the public is LOVING the over, and the number is very low for a bills game, especially seeing that the OVer is 10-3 on the year for these two teams.
Indy +7
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I think ATLANTA is ripe for the picking. I also think the under is a solid play because of how turnover and mistake prone both of these teams are. But in the long run that can be just as much of a problem for the under as it is an asset.
Also, I think picking the colts is insane, but also extremely sharp. You have painter who is starting to get in the flow of things, you have the colts who are playing their first home game in a month... a lot of talk about how the Colts are useless without manning, one sportscaster saying "my vote is for Peyton Manning for MVP, because his team clearly cant function without him"
I think this game is a tough one to make a play on and will need to discuss with the fellow cappers. But I wanna lay it down on the colts.
4-2 Yesterday---
Disappointing losses on both the South Carolina and Alabama games, I think McCarron is a real disappointment, he looked completely scared out there last night, but nonetheless a wonderful football game. Personally, after seeing that contest, Im not sure either of those teams has the offense to beat Ok. st or Boise.
2011-2012
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102-81-6 OVERALL
42-26-3 NFL
60-55-3 NCAA FOOTBALL
2011-2012
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102-81-6 OVERALL
42-26-3 NFL
60-55-3 NCAA FOOTBALL
Saturday, November 5, 2011
adding another
Utah State +4
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Utah state coming off the bye against an inconsistent hawaii team..
NC STATE +3.5
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Rivalry game here where NC state is surely pumped up coming off an embarrassing shutout loss to Florida State. NC State is not having their best year but does have some quality wins over decent opponents Virginia and Central Mich. I think that North Carolina's magnificent ass whipping of Wake Forest last week will be short lived as NC state covers this narrow (And sinking) margin.
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Utah state coming off the bye against an inconsistent hawaii team..
NC STATE +3.5
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Rivalry game here where NC state is surely pumped up coming off an embarrassing shutout loss to Florida State. NC State is not having their best year but does have some quality wins over decent opponents Virginia and Central Mich. I think that North Carolina's magnificent ass whipping of Wake Forest last week will be short lived as NC state covers this narrow (And sinking) margin.
Bama -5
------
Are you kidding... we all know who number one is. Lets not play this game any longer, 24-10 Alabama.
Texas -14
------
Tech is just not getting better, Texas improving vastly.
Baylor 2.5
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Baylor going to come off last weeks loss with a good performance, Missouri is a solid team, but overhyped because of their Conference move.
South Carolina +5
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The gamecocks are going to slow the arky offense... expect an UPSET.
2011-2012
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98-79-6 OVERALL
42-26-3 NFL
56-53-3 NCAA FOOTBALL
------
Are you kidding... we all know who number one is. Lets not play this game any longer, 24-10 Alabama.
Texas -14
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Tech is just not getting better, Texas improving vastly.
Baylor 2.5
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Baylor going to come off last weeks loss with a good performance, Missouri is a solid team, but overhyped because of their Conference move.
South Carolina +5
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The gamecocks are going to slow the arky offense... expect an UPSET.
2011-2012
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98-79-6 OVERALL
42-26-3 NFL
56-53-3 NCAA FOOTBALL
Friday, November 4, 2011
Thursday, November 3, 2011
Tonights Card so far.
UCF -2
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Tonight UCF plays Tulsa in a mid week match up. I think this is a very good spot for UCF who unbeknownst to some still have a chance to win their conference late, despite very poor performances early on. Tulsa is a very good team, but this seems like a bad matchup for Tulsa and I believe they are coming off a let down last week.
ALSO...
Three Team Nine Point Teaser
Miami Ohio -5
BC +23
UCF +7
2011-2012
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95-77-6 OVERALL
42-26-3 NFL
53-51-3 NCAA FOOTBALL
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Specials (Misc)
0-0-0 OVERALL
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Tonight UCF plays Tulsa in a mid week match up. I think this is a very good spot for UCF who unbeknownst to some still have a chance to win their conference late, despite very poor performances early on. Tulsa is a very good team, but this seems like a bad matchup for Tulsa and I believe they are coming off a let down last week.
ALSO...
Three Team Nine Point Teaser
Miami Ohio -5
BC +23
UCF +7
2011-2012
-----
95-77-6 OVERALL
42-26-3 NFL
53-51-3 NCAA FOOTBALL
--------------------
Specials (Misc)
0-0-0 OVERALL
Wednesday, November 2, 2011
more on tonight's play
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So why Ohio? Okay okay, so you know my style, I like to fade the public, but ONLY when applicable. This situation to me is very applicable.
To start, I like the under in this game, and I think the total is indicative of what sort of game it will be. Ohio lives off of a running Qb and a short passing game. Temple lives off of their Running game, point blank period. Both teams have solid defenses and Good athletes on both sides of the ball. Plus there is familiarity between the two which favors the defense, but why does this matter for the Spread??
It matters because Temple will struggle to run the ball tonight against Ohio's D, which possesses a good interior rush and solid linebacking corps. Temple will not want to pass, but they may have to on third down, and Ohio's pass rush is solid, which will hamper any passing offense from Temple in my opinion.
Ohio has been beaten up by a few teams, but they also are returning two key defenders this evening, DT JONES and CB LEFTWICH who are both integral to this defense, and will do better this evening against temple. Ohio really can possess the ball tonight by mixing up the pass, option and run, to get temple in a similar position to what Toledo did earlier in the year. I think honestly toledo is a better team than Ohio, in a better conference, but this should be a game where they can come in and get a lead, which will force Temple into a game of Catch up that they are not built for.
I think Keller is going to hunt down the Temple Running backs, and this should be a game where Ohio comes out on top.
So why Ohio? Okay okay, so you know my style, I like to fade the public, but ONLY when applicable. This situation to me is very applicable.
To start, I like the under in this game, and I think the total is indicative of what sort of game it will be. Ohio lives off of a running Qb and a short passing game. Temple lives off of their Running game, point blank period. Both teams have solid defenses and Good athletes on both sides of the ball. Plus there is familiarity between the two which favors the defense, but why does this matter for the Spread??
It matters because Temple will struggle to run the ball tonight against Ohio's D, which possesses a good interior rush and solid linebacking corps. Temple will not want to pass, but they may have to on third down, and Ohio's pass rush is solid, which will hamper any passing offense from Temple in my opinion.
Ohio has been beaten up by a few teams, but they also are returning two key defenders this evening, DT JONES and CB LEFTWICH who are both integral to this defense, and will do better this evening against temple. Ohio really can possess the ball tonight by mixing up the pass, option and run, to get temple in a similar position to what Toledo did earlier in the year. I think honestly toledo is a better team than Ohio, in a better conference, but this should be a game where they can come in and get a lead, which will force Temple into a game of Catch up that they are not built for.
I think Keller is going to hunt down the Temple Running backs, and this should be a game where Ohio comes out on top.
rough go at it
well we have been on a hot streak and yesterday ended it. Should have laid off the total, I stand by the Toledo pick, had they played ANY defense at all this was an easy cover.
Tonight we have a big play on
OHIO +3.5
Temple had a great season last year, and have shown up in spots in 2011, but I think the hype out weighs their actual skill level and productivity. This is going to be a very hard fought nose to nose battle and I would be very surprised if Temple covered this inter division spread.
I am only playing 1 Unit as usual, but I think this is a very very SHARP play.
2011-2012
-----
94-77-6 OVERALL
42-26-3 NFL
52-51-3 NCAA FOOTBALL
-----------------
(CLOSED OUT)
2010-2011
----------
727-679-31 OVERALL
183-157-6 MLB (Up 15.23 Units)
80-76-5--- NFL
279-253-13 NBA
123-116-4 NCAA (bb)
65-77-3 NCAA FOOTBALL
3-4 Misc (down .2 units)
Tonight we have a big play on
OHIO +3.5
Temple had a great season last year, and have shown up in spots in 2011, but I think the hype out weighs their actual skill level and productivity. This is going to be a very hard fought nose to nose battle and I would be very surprised if Temple covered this inter division spread.
I am only playing 1 Unit as usual, but I think this is a very very SHARP play.
2011-2012
-----
94-77-6 OVERALL
42-26-3 NFL
52-51-3 NCAA FOOTBALL
-----------------
(CLOSED OUT)
2010-2011
----------
727-679-31 OVERALL
183-157-6 MLB (Up 15.23 Units)
80-76-5--- NFL
279-253-13 NBA
123-116-4 NCAA (bb)
65-77-3 NCAA FOOTBALL
3-4 Misc (down .2 units)
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