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BUTLER +4 V Louisville
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So this is how I see this one breaking down. Louisville is without Siva, and they will do their best to keep this game uneventful, disinteresting, and slow, in order to keep the raucous Butler crowd out of the game, and also to use their deep bench and incredible Defense to their advantage. they are a better shooting team than butler, and if they can get some stops they may be able to stretch the floor by having guards get to the corners in transition. however, I see an opposing, and more promising strategy on the Butler side of the ball.

Butler's best player this year is going to be Senior Center Andrew Smith, a very solid 6-11 post player who has been with the team during its two excellent runs, and who has been waiting his turn patiently. Aside from Smith, Butler is not incredibly Deep in the post. What I foresee is the Bulldogs spreading the floor in the half court to allow an open post up area, and good cutting room through the lane. Which in turn, will allow open shots for the experienced Butler back court.

This will be a problem for Louisville because their best matchup for Smith is 6-10 Gorgui Dieng, who is an incredible athlete, but who has constant problems with foul trouble and court discipline. I am sure the kid will improve with such stellar coaching, but Game 3, on the road, against a very well coached big man, is not the position you want this guy in. Siva is out, so the double team will not come as fast or be as effective, and the only other options that Pitino has are a Freshman in 6'10 Zach Price, who has shown some promise against sub par talent, or undersized 6'7 250 pound Chane Behanan.

Behanan will definitely see some time against Smith in the post, but he is also Louisville's best scorer down low, and with so little depth Pitino really cant afford to have him get into foul trouble. He also being 3 inches shorter and not very long, will put him at a disadvantage for sure. If louisville plays a zone, they will be in even more trouble as Butler will eat their zone for a late 2:00pm luncheon.

I really like Butler in this one, it seems like the easy pick, and we all know how I feel about sucker plays, but I just do not see how Louisville wins this game without their best player.