Today's NFL

Carolina +7
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think this is a play that I would really like to make, but my gambling instincts will not allow me to proceed. I have a very very strong lean on Detroit. They will be able to move the ball on carolina's pass D, but the problem is that all the teams that have let carolina hang around are pass heavy teams. Those that smoke carolina are run based or have a very strong run threat. look at these losses (ATLANTA 31 -17 & Tennessee 30-3) in comparison to the scores in (New Orleans 30-27 - Green Bay 30-23-Chicago 34-29) It seems that teams who do not possess the ball well in the running game are also those who struggle with carolina's athleticism and youthful energy. Carolina plays very loose and I think they will have ZERO fear against the lions on the road today. Carolina got their ass kicked last week, but it was simply a bad matchup for them. They will bounce back and certainly take advantage of the fact that Detroit is looking ahead to their thanksgiving day showdown. can you spell TRAP game?

Under 48 Green BaY Vs Tampa Bay
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I am going with the same theory that got me a loss on monday night. I think the packers are way too versatile on offense for Tampa to get into a shootout, and will have to possess the ball against Green Bay. I do understand that Tampa has been throwing the ball 35+ times a game, and with good reason as they have a very solid receiving corps. But there has been a lot of heat on the Tampa coaching staff for their play calling, and I think this game is a very good one to start running the ball and possessing it. Also Green Bay, like many of the teams that are at the bottom of the Pass yardage allowed barrel, has a ton of interceptions (17) and although I believe Tampa will have success in passing the ball today, they will have to be conservative and play possession football. Lets also not forget that Freeman still has an injured thumb, which hurts long throws more than anything, so there are many reasons to think Tampa will want to slow the game down. I also think the Bucs are the best team that Green Bay has played in a month (STL, MIN, San Diego) and that TAMPA will keep it close for a half or so. The packers have gone over at a rate of 6-3 this year, and their last 3 games have gone over. Over is 5-4 in Tampa games, and 3 of their last 4 have gone under, but I do not believe they are the focal point of the betting on this game, people will predicate their breakdowns on Green Bay. Tampa will look to take the crowd out of the game and take the air out of the ball in a WEST COAST offense fashion, and they may get blown out doing so, but I dont see 50 points today.


Minnesota -2
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This is a bad mismatch for Oakland. Oakland has had trouble with the pass rush all season and the vikings apply a ton of pressure, which will help keep Palmer uncomfortable in the pocket.
Also, the minnesota rush D is very solid, and has been all season, and although Oakland has had 10 days to prepare, I think that Bush will be shut down. conversely I believe that AP will not be stopped, especially with Ponder's ability to throw the football, and the lack of a Pass Rush the raiders have shown this season. These teams are evenly matched on paper, but in actuality this is not the team oakland wants to play. Lets not forget that Minnesota is a tough young team, and that they will most definitely bounce back from the ass whippin they took on monday night, just as they have all season.

Tennessee +6.5
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Both teams are coming off of good games against decent competition, but the falcons are really coming off of a bunch of games against teams who cannot, and DO NOT run the football. Tennessee does not have the stats to back it up, but take a few guys out of the box against the Titans and see what happens with Chris Johnson. I honestly feel that the Falcons will have a let down this week, they played so well last week, especially in the fourth quarter, coming back from a 10 point deficit with 5 mins left and tying the game, only for their coach (who has been questionable all year in my eyes) to screw it up on a bonehead fourth down play in his own end in overtime. Mike Smith literally handed the game away last week, and although many talking heads think this is a chance for the falcons to come back strong, I honestly have a hard time believing they will win, nevermind by a touchdown. Atlanta may win this game in 24-20 fashion, but I expect them to lose on the field. Either way I think the sharp play here is Tennessee.




4-3 in COLLEGE F
1-1 in BBALL yesterday

2011-2012
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134-109-9 OVERALL
52-35-4 NFL
73-71-4 NCAA FOOTBALL
9-3-1 NCAA BASKETBALL