NFL SUNDAY CARD

ATL +0
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Got this one early.
This is a tough one. I like Atlanta honestly. I think they played a cupcake team last week, which scares me, but what would scare me more is betting on a New Orleans Road team that has caught all four of its losses (ATS) on the road. This makes plenty of sense, The saints are much better at home, as they should be, thats a wonderful place to play and an excellent crowd.

As far as the football side of things. When New Orleans loses it is because they let the other team score too much. They certainly have no problem themselves putting up points, but they do lose their ability to contain the run against teams like St Louis, Carolina, and Tampa. These teams also have strong QBs except Feeley who just had the game of his life on New Orleans. Bottom line is its friday night, and Im locking this in NOW. New orleans played well last week, but will have a tougher time with the surging ATL offense and ATL's improved D.


Over 48 & Dallas +5.5
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Bills are the play, but then again they arent. Dallas is the sure sharp play, but landing at 5.5 on a popular home team doesnt really intrigue me.
i like the over, but dallas has too many key injuries. They do have Bryant and romo, which makes it a considerable play. Plus the number is right where I thought it would be, and the game is on the big stage at dallas. I think dallas passes all over the bills, and the bills although they will move the ball, they may have a hard time scoring at the capacity that I anticipate Dallas scoring. 31-24 Dallas.


Denver +3
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love the Broncos in this spot. I think that People over value some of the wins Kansas City has. KC has some major problems with their team. They do not score in the running game, and they do not move the ball well in the passing game. KC is solid in the RZ defense but one of the biggest criticisms of Tim Tebow is what he does with the ball under pressure. Tebow has been sacked 14 times this year and probably four or five are his own fault. No problem though with KC, b/c they have 9 Sacks as a fucking team!!!
ALL YEAR. Despite their meltdown last game KC has been a cover machine as of late, and I understand the apprehension of some people to back Denver. But Denver plain and simple has played a lot of decent competition in their recent games. Oakland is not bad, Detroit is solid, San Diego is Okay, and Green Bay, although it was not a game really, set the bar for this team to begin to play better as they started to play to their higher capacity.

I think the Broncos win this game in Kansas City as Both teams will struggle to move the ball against one another in a very tight game. All in all its just a bad match up for the Chiefs.




Under 42.5 San Fran V Giants
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The giants have a hard time stopping the run, and they will have to beat the forty niners at a slower paced game out in san fran tomorrow. The niners are very good at controlling the clock and the pace of a game, and I think if the patriots meager defense can shut out the giants for a half, then San Fran can contain them by possessing the ball for long periods of time. Bradshaw will be out tomorrow, which means manning will be holding the rock most of the time, but honestly, that does not scare me on this under, because better men have lost to the San Fran D, and I think Eli makes a valiant effort and his team loses 20-17 in a close fought battle .


San Fran #1 in points allowed 14.8
# 1 in rush yardage per game 70.8
#8 in overall yardage 325.9 allowed
#6 at offensive rushing yardage
#30 at passing yardage
Under is 4-4 in San Fran Games
Under is 3-5 in Giants games
Under has hit in last 2 Giants games
Under has hit in last 3 San Fran games.
San Fran D has allowed only 7 TD in RZ , NO RUSHING TD.

Giants run D #24 in the league... will be attacked.
Giants RZ run D, not so terrible only 8 TDs in 43 Rushes .

The number is also extremely low for the amount these two teams average every game.



2011-2012
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117-95-8 OVERALL
47-30-4 NFL
67-65-4 NCAA FOOTBALL
3-0-0 NCAA BASKETBALL